Roundtable Discussion on China’s Economy

来历: CHINA FOREX 2019 Issue 4
On October 1,China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Over the course of 2019,the country made steady progress in its economic development despi

On October 1China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Over the course of 2019the country made steady progress in its economic development despite domestic setbacks and a complex global environment. But people are concerned about a number of uncertainties in China’s economy. Those issues include pricesespecially for porkas well as the impact on the real estate market from reforms in domestic interest rates. Additionallythere is much debate about the influence of further opening-up measures in finance and foreign trade on China’s stock marketthe trend in the   renminbi exchange rate and which types of assets promise the best returns on investment.

Sino-US trade friction and interest rate liberalization were among the key issues examined  at a recent roundtable discussion organized by China Forex. Zhang Ming,researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Academy of Social Sciences and chief economist of Ping An Securities,and Zhou Daochuan ,former director of the research and strategy department and managing director at Yunfeng Financial Group,gave their views on these and other topics at this roundtable moderated by Zhong Wei,deputy editor at China Forex. The following is an edited version of this discussion.

Zhong Wei: FirstI’d like to welcome our two guests. Since the beginning of 2019prices in China have been rising but they have generally remained under control. As far as the Produce Price Index (PPI) is concernedthe prices of non-ferrous metals have fluctuatedand international oil prices have been unsteady. In terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)the prices of porkfruits and vegetables have been volatile. Of particular concern are surging pork prices. In your opinionhow long will it take before pork prices start to edge lower in this hog cycle? Will monetary policy be used to cushion the effects of volatile pork prices?

Zhang Ming: The rise in pork prices appeared in the middle and late stages of this hog cycle. A turning point is unlikely before the end of this year but year-on-year growth in pork prices is expected to ease significantly in the first half of 2020.

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