全球汇市的新动向

发布:2017-12-15 19:41 来历: 《我国Betway体育》2017年第24期 作者:沈建光

全球汇市的新动向

New Trends in the Global Foreign Exchange Market

/沈建光

By Shen Jianguang

9月以来,影响全球金融商场的经济与政治事情层出不穷,汇市处于显着的震动态势。估计当时及未来一段时间内,很难在全球找到一个显着强势或许弱势的钱银,美元、欧元、日元、英镑乃至人民币,均将大概率处于双向动摇区间。展望未来,左右全球汇率动摇的首要因素有以下三方面。

Since September, global financial markets have been buffeted by a steady stream of unanticipated political and economic developments. The foreign exchange market has been no exception. It is now difficult to state unequivocally which currency is strong and which is weak. Moreover, this uncertain state of affairs could hold true for some time. In general, it is likely that the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound and even the renminbi will move sideways in two-way range trading. Looking forward, there are three main factors influencing global exchange rate movements.

其一,经济超预期的反弹状况。本年以来,全球经济活跃向好,欧、美、日等兴旺经济体以及我国经济均呈现了超预期添加。特别是欧洲经济,呈现了微弱的复苏态势,时隔八年增速初次超越美国,支撑前三季度欧元强势增值。9月中旬以来,美国经济也利好不断:虽然存在飓风影响,但三季度美国GDP初值依然达到了3%的超预期水平,加之税改利好的推动,美元指数体现更为杰出。

First, the global economy has rebounded more than expected. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has been making good progress. Developed economies in Europe, as well as the US, Japan and others, in addition to China, have recorded unexpected growth. In particular, the European economy showed a strong recovery trend, and its growth rate surpassed that of the US for the first time in more than eight years. That supported the strong appreciation of the euro over the first three quarters of the year. Since mid-September, the US economy has seen positive growth. Despite the impact of devastating hurricanes, the initial reading of US gross domestic product in the third quarter rose 3%, which is above expectations. Coupled with the prospect of tax reform, the US dollar index was relatively firm.

我国的体现相同超出预期,前三季度全体坚持6.9%的添加,标明我国经济干劲增强和回旋余地增大。除了传统的基建和房地产起到必定的支撑效果,服务业的快速开展,以及在互联网、移动付出、新能源等带动下的经济新动能也效果显着。

China’s economic performance surpassed expectations as well, and overall growth came in at 6.9% in the first three quarters, indicating that China’s economy is becoming more resilient. In addition to the traditional economic drivers of infrastructure and real estate, the rapid growth of the service industry, the Internet, mobile payments and new energy played a significant role in driving the economic expansion.

可以看到,本年全球经济回暖以及各国经济的活跃体现超出早前商场预期,为本国钱银走势供给了支撑。未来各国经济添加是否可继续将成为左右其汇率动摇的要害因素之一。

The global economic rebound this year and the stronger performance of various other key economies have created momentum for a number of currencies. The sustainable development of the economic growth of various countries in the future will be one of the key factors affecting these exchange rate fluctuations.

其二,政治稳定性远景。政治危险关于近两年全球汇率走势的影响巨大,而笔者对美元走强在未来能否继续的疑虑也首要来自于政治方面。Second, there are greater expectations of political stability. Political risk had a major impact on global exchange rate movements over the past two years. The author believes that political uncertainties may yet undermine the strength of the US dollar.

112日,美国众议院发布了税改法案的具体内容,但税改远景仍引发多方质疑。其原因如下:榜首,对跨国公司堆集的海外收益征收最高12%的税负高于此前特朗普的主张,估计这对推动境外赢利回流的效果将非常有限;第二,“筛选”遗产税也被“在数年内逐步推动”所代替,慢于早前特朗普的许诺;第三,虽然公司税率从35%削减至20%,一些商业集体仍对立激烈,其能否在国会取得经过存在变数;第四,从长时间来看,能否在经济添加中补偿减税带来的赤字添加仍具不确定性。除此以外,通俄门查询的步步紧逼,使得特朗普未来的执政远景并不非常明亮,或许会对美元构成必定的冲击。

On November 2, the US House of Representatives announced details of the tax reform bill. Two weeks later the bill was approved. However, the prospect of tax reform remains a public concern, behind which the reasons are as follows. First, the tax burden on multinational corporations accumulating overseas profits is up to 12%, which is higher than that of President Trump’s past suggestions. It is expected that the bill will have a very limited effect in promoting the return of corporate profits parked overseas. Second, the bill would substantially raise the threshold for payment of inheritance tax. It will ultimately abolish the tax though it will delay the starting date to 2024. Third, some business groups are opposed to the bill, despite a cut in corporate tax rates from 35% to 20%, and this could be a substantial obstacle to passage. Fourth, in the long run, whether the deficit increase caused by tax cuts can be offset by revenue from greater economic growth remains uncertain. In addition, the ongoing investigation of Russia gate could jeopardize the Trump administration, and this may have an impact on the dollar.

欧洲方面,早前的德国极右实力成为德国第三大政党,以及最近西班牙加泰罗尼亚区域的割裂事情等危险,导致欧元在近一段时间呈现跌落。不过,最近局势好像有所好转:西班牙中央政府强势接收加泰罗尼亚区域,割裂气势得到操控;英国方面则暗示,迁就脱欧商洽做出退让,以推动商洽进程。假如未来欧洲政治危险可以进一步下降,有望支撑欧元再度呈现阶段性上涨。

On the European front, the euro has been pressured somewhat by the German far-right forces have emerged as the third-largest political party in that country. Meanwhile, the pro-independence sentiment in the Spanish region of Catalonia has also unsettled markets. However, it seems that the situation has improved somewhat since the Spanish central government took direct administrative control over Catalonia, briefly slowing the slide towards independence. As for Britain's Brexit talks, London has shown some flexibility amid domestic concerns over a "hard Brexit," but the crunch is yet to come.  If political risk in Europe can be further reduced, the euro is expected to experience another staged advance.

我国的政治领导力得到加强。十九大给出了未来五年乃至三十年施政纲领和蓝图,对我国经济开展提出了新的要求:世界方面,愈加注重世界规矩的拟定与发挥全球影响力;国内方面,从以往过度寻求经济开展速度,向更高质量的添加以及愈加平衡的分配改变。在此布景下,去杠杆或许会加快推动,未来的经济方针或许会愈加注重收入分配问题、环境问题以及房地产问题的处理。

In China, the political leadership has been strengthened. The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China has drafted a blueprint for the economy over the next five years and further into the future, stating new requirements for the nation's economic development. In the international arena, more attention is being paid to China's role in the formulation of international rules and the exertion of its global influence. In the domestic arena, the emphasis has shifted to higher quality growth rather than growth itself. In this context, the process of deleveraging may be accelerated. Economic policies in the future may pay more attention to dealing with the issues of income distribution, environmental protection and real estate.

其三,全球钱银方针收紧的态势。本年以来,全球央行加快了钱银方针紧缩的脚步。而未来,宽松钱银方针退出的快慢,将成为影响汇率走势的要害。近期欧元的跌落就与欧央行没有超预期缩表,以及退出量化宽松的方针偏鸽派有关;而美联储方面极有或许于12月敞开的年内第三次加息,或成为短期内支撑美元上涨的重要因素。

Third, global monetary policy has shifted as major central banks move ahead with monetary tightening. In the future, the pace of the withdrawal from quantitative easing monetary policy will be the key to influencing exchange rate movements. The recent downward pressure on the euro stems from the expected shrinking of the European Central Bank's balance sheet and the withdrawal from quantitative easing. It is also likely that in December the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the third time this year. This could buoy the dollar in the near term.

但是,加息之后,美元是否能继续走强仍存在疑问。曩昔两年,每年年末美联储加息之后,美元都在第二年上半年不升反跌。此外,考虑到将在下一年就任的新美联储主席鲍威尔相对鸽派,其对美元的影响也是中性偏弱的。

However, whether the US dollar can continue to rise after the year-end interest rate hike is doubtful. In the last two years the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the year-end, but the dollar declined in the first half of the following year. In addition, it is more likely that Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve board member who is slated to become chairman next year, will maintain a dovish stance on monetary policy. That could have a neutral or slightly negative effect on the dollar.

我国方面,本年以来的全体钱银方针现已比上一年显着收紧,去杠杆也导致金融商场利率显着提高。在十九大之后,决策层对去杠杆的注重再度提高,这也预示着在全球宽松钱银方针退出的大布景下,我国钱银方针仍将坚持中性偏紧的态势,以深化前期去杠杆的尽力。

In China, monetary policy has clearly tightened since the beginning of this year. Deleveraging has also led to a marked increase in interest rates in domestic financial markets. At the 19th Communist Party Congress, policy makers stressed the need for more deleveraging. That indicated that amid a global withdrawal from quantitative easing, China's monetary policy will maintain a neutral to slightly tighter posture in order to deepen the initial stage of the deleveraging program.

总而言之,近期各国钱银汇率走势根本取决于多方力气的比照。估计年末之前,美元汇率将处于一个震动动摇的区间,全球范围内短期也很难找到一个肯定强势的钱银。从今后几年来看,笔者以为,美元仍将全体弱势;欧元对美元还有增值的空间;人民币将呈双向动摇态势,中心值在现在6.5左右的水平。

All in all, the recent trends of exchange rates in various countries basically depend on the interaction of a number of forces. It is expected that by the end of the year, the dollar will be volatile. It is difficult to find an absolutely strong currency in the world in the short term. In the coming few years, the author believes that the dollar will generally remain weak. There is still room for appreciation of the euro against the dollar, and the renminbi will be fluctuating around its current parity level of around 6.5 to the dollar.

作者系瑞穗证券亚洲公司董事总经理、首席经济学家

The author is managing director and chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.