人民币入篮一周年:效果、应战和打开

发布:2017-11-17 15:08 来历: 《我国Betway体育》2017年第21期 作者:王国刚

20151130日,在世界钱银基金安排(IMF188个成员高度认可下,IMF决定将人民币归入特别提款权(SDR)钱银篮子(以下简称“人民币入篮”),并于2016101日施行。现在,人民币入篮现已一周年。一年来,虽然世界形势云谲波诡、动乱不安,但人民币饱尝住了检测,不只有用地推动了人民币世界化进程和我国的对外敞开进程,世界名誉大为进步,并且有用支撑了国内的供应侧结构性变革和金融变革,为“一带一路”建议的执行发明了有利的钱银金融条件。但也要看到,人民币入篮并非一了百了之事。依据IMF的规则,每隔5年将对SDR钱银篮子进行新一轮的评价,已进入SDR钱银篮子的主权钱银假如达不到规则的条件,就有或许“出篮”。因而,人民币在“篮”中的方位仍然有待进一步加强和安定。这既取决于世界社会各种要素的改变,也取决于我国经济社会的昌盛打开和变革敞开的深化。

Two years agothe International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to include the renminbi in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket. This important decisionreached with the backing of 188 other members of the fundwent into effect on October 12016. It now has been more than a year since the Chinese currency was formally added to the basket of reserve currenciesand over that perioddespite the turbulence of international marketsthe renminbi has withstood the test. This has effectively promoted the internationalization of the renminbiaccelerated China’s opening to the rest of the world and given a major boost to China's international reputation.

At the same timeit has supported domestic financial and supply-side structural reformswhile paving the way for the nation's “Belt and Road" initiativean ambitious program that seeks to boost infrastructure development and trade between Asia and Europe. This program could also result in a big role for the Chinese currency in financing and trade. It should be kept in mind that including the renminbi in the basket of reserve currencies requires continuing efforts. According to the provisions of the IMFthe SDR currency basket must undergo a fresh round of assessments every five yearsand currencies that fail to meet the IMF requirements can be removed from the basket. Thereforefurther efforts will be required to ensure that the renminbi remains an SDR component. This will depend on changes in the international situation and the prosperity and development of China’s economyincluding the progress in deepening the nation's reforms and opening the economy.

人民币入篮一周年的丰厚效果

主权钱银是任何一个国家经济社会系统中不可或缺的一个实质性构成部分。人民币入篮,标志着我国主权钱银得到全球各国和区域的公平认同。20151130IMF决定将人民币入篮后,我国主权钱银在世界经济中的方位、话语权和影响力得到快速进步。

The First Year’s Achievements

A sovereign currency is an indispensable part of any country’s economic and social system. Including the renminbi in this international basket of reserve currencies signals the recognition of China's sovereign currency by the international community. It has enhanced China's standing in the worldamplified the authority of its voice and expanded the influence of its actions.

榜首,人民币在世界钱银系统中的方位显着上升。从跨境人民币收付事务看,2016年,跨境人民币收付金额算计9.85万亿元,占同期本外币跨境收付金额的比重为25.2%,接连六年成为我国第二大跨境收付钱银。其间,常常项目人民币收款2.15万亿元,付款3.08万亿元,净开销9273.7亿元,收付比为11.432017年前9个月,我国进出口总额到达20.29万亿元,同比添加16.6%,且人民币的收付金额进一步扩展。另一方面,2016年“本钱项目”中,人民币收款1.63万亿元,付款2.98万亿元,净开销1.35万亿元,收付比为11.83(拜见我国人民银行《2017年我国人民币世界化陈述》)。2017106日,举世银行间金融电讯协会(Swift)发布的数据闪现,以价值核算,人民币在全球付出系统中所占商场份额到达创纪录的2.79%,初次超越日元,跻身于全球第四大付出钱银。从储藏钱银看, IMF发布的“官方Betway体育储藏钱银构成(COFER)”的数据闪现,已有60多个国家和区域将人民币归入Betway体育储藏的币种领域,人民币储藏在201612月末到达845.1亿美元,占标明币种构成Betway体育储藏总额的1.07%;到2017年第二季度,人民币储藏规划进一步到达993.6亿美元,较2016年年末又增了长9.5%。此外,到2016年年末,我国人民银行已与36个国家和区域的中心银行或钱银当局签署了双方辅币交换协议,协议总金额超越3.3万亿元人民币。2017101日,IMF总裁拉加德强调指出,人民币将被世界社会认可,成为可自在运用的世界钱银。

Firstthe renminbi has taken an increasingly important role in the international monetary system. In 2016cross-border renminbi receipts and payments amounted to 9.85 trillion yuanaccounting for 25.2% of China's domestic and foreign currency cross-border payments in that period. The renminbi has been China's second largest cross-border payment currency for six consecutive years. Current account renminbi receipts reached 2.15 trillion yuan and renminbi payments were 3.08 trillion yuanwhich means a net expenditure of 927.37 billion yuan. From January to September of 2017China’s total imports and exports reached 20.29 trillion yuan with a year-on-year increase of 16.6 %. The total of renminbi payments continued to expand.

On the capital account in 2016renminbi receipts reached 1.63 trillion yuan and payments were 2.98 trillion yuanwhich means a net expenditure of 1.35 trillion yuan. On October 62017the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) published data showing that the renminbi reached a record 2.79% of global payments in terms of valuesurpassing the yen for the first time and becoming the fourth largest payment currency in the world. In terms of reserve currenciesthe IMF’s Official Foreign Exchange Reserve Currency Composition data show that more than 60 countries and regions have included the renminbi in their foreign currency reserves. At the end of December 2016renminbi reserves reached the equivalent of US$84.51 billionaccounting for 1.07% of total foreign exchange reserves. By the second quarter of 2017the renminbi reserves reached the equivalent of US$ 99.36 billionup 9.5% from the end of 2016. In additionby the end of 2016the People’s Bank of China had signed a bilateral currency swap agreement with the central bank or monetary authorities of 36 countries and regions. The total amount of the agreements reached at more than 3.3 trillion yuan. Speaking on October 12017IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde stressed that the status of the Chinese currency will be acknowledged by the international community and it will become a freely traded international currency.

第二,人民币汇率坚持根本安稳。2015年今后,跟着美联储施行退出量化宽松方针,联邦基金利率进入加息通道,人民币兑美元的汇率出现走低的趋势;但与欧元、英镑、日元等比较,人民币兑美元的汇价走低程度仍然是最小的,闪现了人民币仍然是世界金融中可选择的坚硬钱银。2016年今后,在我国经济微弱添加和我国人民银行采纳必要办法安稳汇价的状况下,人民币兑美元汇率继续走高。依据我国钱银网的数据,自201713日以来,人民币对兑美元的中心价升幅约为5.05%。在这个过程中,我国人民银行活泼推动人民币汇率构成机制的变革,继2015811日推出人民币汇率中心价报价机制今后,2017526日,又推出了人民币汇率中心价报价模型的“逆周期因子”,进一步安稳了汇市买卖各方对人民币汇率的预期。Moreoverthe renminbi exchange rate remained basically stable over the period after it joined the basket of reserve currencies. Since 2015with the US Federal Reserve signaling that it would withdraw its quantitative easing policy and gradually increase the federal funds ratethe renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar has shown a downward trend. Howevercompared with the euroBritish pound or the yenthe renminbi exchange rate against the US currency has declined by the smallest amountindicating that the renminbi is the optimal choice of international currencies. Since 2016the renminbi exchange rate against the US dollar has continued to rise along with China's strong economic growth and with the efforts of the People’s Bank of China to stabilize the exchange rate. According to data of www.chinamoney.comsince January 32017the central parity rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has risen by about 5.05%. In this processthe People’s Bank of China actively promoted the reform of the renminbi's exchange rate mechanism. Following the launch of the reform of the renminbi's central parity mechanism on August 112015authorities added the use of a counter cyclical factor in setting the parity rate as of May 262017. This further stabilized market expectations.

Betway体育储藏是人民币世界化的钱银根底。我国Betway体育储藏在2014年年末为38430.18亿美元,到2015年年末,下降为33303.62亿美元。这在必定程度上加速了2015年人民币兑美元汇率的下行。2016年今后,我国Betway体育局采纳了一系列办法进一步标准Betway体育进出境办理,按捺了Betway体育储藏财物大幅削减的态势。到20179月,Betway体育储藏财物从2016年年末的30105.17亿美元上升到31085.1亿美元,提振了海外出资者和其他非居民持有人民币的决心,促进了人民币兑美元汇率的上升。Foreign exchange reserves are the monetary basis of the internationalization of the renminbi. As of the end of 2014China’s foreign exchange reserves amounted to US$3,843.018 billionbut they declined to US$3,330.362 billion at the end of 2015. To some extent that accelerated the weakening of the yuan against the US dollar in 2015. Since 2016the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has adopted a series of measures to tighten foreign exchange managementthereby halting the sharp decline of foreign exchange reserves. As of September 2017foreign exchange reserve assets had risen from US$3,010.517 billion at the end of 2016 to US$3,108.51 billionboosting the confidence of overseas investors and other nonresidents in holding renminbi. That in turn helped improve the exchange rate of the Chinese currency against the dollar.

第三,我国本钱商场走向世界化。我国人民银行《2017年我国人民币世界化陈述》发表,到2016年年末,有407家境外安排获准进入我国境内银行间债券商场,债券保管余额为8000.3亿元。依照世界清算银行(BIS)狭义计算口径,以人民币标价的世界债券余额到达6987.2亿元。其间,境外安排在离岸商场上发行的未清偿人民币债券余额到达5665.8亿元,在我国境内发行的人民币债券余额为1321.4亿元。非居民持有境内人民币金融财物余额到达3.03万亿元。其间:境外安排持有的股票市值和债券保管余额分别为6491.9亿元和8526.2亿元,境外安排对境内安排的借款余额到达6164.4亿元,非居民在境内银行的人民币存款余额到达9154.7亿元。另一方面,在人民币入篮要素的推动下,2016125日,“深港通”正式注册;2017621日,全球威望指数编制公司(MSCI)宣告,将把我国A股正式归入MSCI新式商场指数以及全球指数;201773日,香港与内地债券商场互联互通协作正式发动。这一系列本钱商场对外敞开的举动,丰厚了我国本钱商场互联互通机制的深度敞开,也为全球出资者进入我国本钱商场供应了新的买卖平台。依据中心国债挂号结算公司与上海清算所最新发布的保管数据,20178月,境外安排增持了825.67亿元人民币债券,增持起伏再创前史新高。MeanwhileChina’s capital market has been undergoing a process of internationalization. According to the People’s Bank of China’s 2017 China International Renminbi Report407 foreign institutions had been authorized to take part in the domestic inter-bank bond market and had a bond custody balance of 800.03 billion yuan as of the end of 2016. According to the narrower statistics of the Bank for International Settlementsthe balance of international debt denominated in renminbi amounted to 698.72 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding renminbi bonds issued by overseas institutions in the offshore market reached 566.58 billion yuan and the balance of renminbi bonds issued in mainland China was 132.14 billion yuan.

The balance of financial assets held by non-residents in China reached 3.03 trillion yuan. That figure included a balance of 616.44 billion yuan in stocks and 852.62 billion yuan of bonds held in custody by overseas institutions. The balance of loans of domestic institutions borrowed from foreign institutions reached 616.44 billion yuanand the balance of non-resident deposits at domestic banks reached 915.47 billion yuan. Additionallythe Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connecta program that links trading on the stock exchanges of the two citieswas officially launched on June 52016. On June 212017Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced that China’s A Shares were officially included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the global index. On July 32017Hong Kong and mainland China officially launched their bond market cooperation program. This series of initiatives deepened the opening up of China's capital marketproviding a new trading platform for global investors to enter the Chinese market. According to the custody data of the China Central Depository & Clearing Co.Ltd. and the Shanghai Clearing Housein August 2017foreign institutions increased their holdings of bonds by 82.567 billion yuana record high.

第四,人民币跨境运用的根底设施建造加速。2016年,我国人民银行加大了推动人民币跨境付出系统(CIPS)的建造力度:到2016年年末,该系统的直接参与者到达28家、直接参与者到达512家,掩盖了全球80个国家和区域;累计处理付出事务722849笔,金额到达48427亿元。另一方面,我国人民银行加速了境外人民币事务清算机制的建造,先后与美联储、俄央行等23个国家和区域的央行树立了人民币清算安排,以保证在这些国家和区域的企业和金融安排能运用人民币进行跨境买卖,有用推动了买卖出资的便当化。

Additionallythe construction of infrastructure for the cross-border use of renminbi has been accelerated. In 2016the People’s Bank of China intensified the effort to promote cross-border renminbi payments. At the end of 2016the number of direct participants in the system reached 28 institutions with 512 participantscovering 80 countries around the world. The cumulative processing and payment business reached 722,849 cases with a value of 4,842.7 billion yuan. On the other handthe People’s Bank of China has accelerated the construction of the liquidation mechanism of overseas renminbi businessand established renminbi clearing arrangements with the central banks of 23 countries and regions. These included the US Federal Reserve and the Russian central bank and were designed to ensure that enterprises and financial institutions in these countries and regions could deal with cross-border renminbi transactionseffectively promoting trade and investment.

总归,入篮一周年来,人民币在世界金融中的功用效能已初露头角,不只在促进我国买卖出资方面的活泼效能有所展示,并且在促进世界钱银系统变革、推动世界经济打开中的效能也开端闪现。

In shortduring the first year of the renminbi's inclusion in the basket of reserve currenciesthere has been a positive performance of China’s trade and investmentfurther reform of the international monetary system and the promotion of the more effective international economic development.

人民币驻篮面临的应战

俗话说:打江山难坐江山更难。虽然人民币现已入篮且一年来体现不俗,但世界社会风云改变,人民币要在SDR中坐稳(即“驻篮”)且体现得更为超卓,既有赖于世界经济运转的复苏和打开,也有赖于我国国内经济社会的打开。而在这些方面,人民币驻篮都面临着严峻应战。

Challenges Facing the Renminbi

It is often said that it is more difficult to maintain achievements than to earn them. Despite the fact that the renminbi's performance as a reserve currency has been exemplarythere is a need for more effort. This depends on the recovery and development of the international economy as well as China’s domestic economic and social development. The series of challenges facing the renminbi in the basket of reserve currencies are as follows.

一是动乱不安的世界社会,使人民币驻篮的外部环境复杂多变。首要,特朗普当选为美国新一任总统今后推出的一系列非常态的方针,令世界社会一片哗然。在“美国优先”理念的分配下,美国不只退出了全球应对气候改变举动的“巴黎协议”,叫停了跨太平洋协作伙伴协议(TPP)的商洽,并且高举买卖维护主义旗号,以所谓的“不公平的进口”为口实、以完毕“不公平的买卖行为”为标的,与许多首要国家和区域打开了一系列的买卖出资协议从头商洽。这预示着,未来几年各国和区域间的世界买卖走势将具有更多的不确定性。其次,20173月今后,英国脱欧的程序进入实质性操作阶段,但迄今欧盟与英国在脱欧条件上的商洽仍处于僵局,远景尚不明亮。英国脱欧,不只会将对欧盟和欧元区的经济金融发作严峻的负面影响,并且会使世界经济金融面临难以预料的动乱局势。再次,美欧等国迄今不供认我国的商场经济方位,买卖维护不断延伸,企图以此遏止我国的买卖添加。这给我国的对外买卖带来了新的不确定影响。最终,比如苏格兰脱英、加泰罗尼亚公投脱离西班牙,伦巴第和威尼托两区域公投脱离意大利等,也都在发酵,给欧洲经济社会打开带了更多的变数。此外,世界金融的改变中也隐含着一系列不确定的变数。2017615日,美联储进行了2017年的第2次加息,加息25个基点至1%1.25%;与此一起,美联储还加速了财物负债表的“缩表”进展,回笼已投进在外的美元。这些办法意味着,美国退出量化宽松的脚步在加速,美元将跟着这些方针的施行而增值。这不只会进一步导致各种世界钱银的价值下降和世界经济金融买卖中的美元吃紧,并且将导致世界商场中的大宗商品价格动摇,给各国和区域的经济打开带来进一步的不确定影响。

The turbulent external environment makes the renminbi's role in the basket complex. First of allthe newly elected president of the USDonald Trumpintroduced a series of disruptive policieswhich unsettled the international community. Under President Trump's America First policythe US has withdrawn from the Paris Accord on global climate changeand abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement that had been ready to link 12 economies. But the US turned away from its open market policies and instead embraced protectionismusing the pretext of addressing unfair imports. It launched a series of initiatives to renegotiate trade and investment agreements with many of its trading partnerssuch as Mexico and Canada. This suggests that the international trade environment will experience more uncertainty over the next few years.

MeanwhileBrexit procedures have reached a crucial phase. So far the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom on Brexit terms are deadlocked. Brexit will have a serious impact on the economy and finances of the EU and the eurozoneand this adds even more uncertainty to the global economy. Moreoverthe USEurope and other key economies still refuse to recognize China’s market economy status. Trade friction and protectionism continue unabated. Meanwhilethere are continuing efforts to curb China’s trade growthand this has brought new uncertainties to China’s foreign trade picture. FinallyScotland's continuing flirtation with independence from Britain and the Catalonia referendum on independence from Spain are symptoms of political tensions that threaten to unravel existing national and international arrangements. The regions of Lombardy and Venetowhich include Milan and Venicehave voted for more autonomyand this too could create even more uncertainty in the European Union.

On the monetary policy frontthere are fresh areas of uncertainty as well. In Junethe Federal Reserve made its second rate hike of 2017announcing another 25-basis-point rise in the federal funds rate to 1.25%. At the same timethe Federal Reserve also moved closer to actually shrinking its balance sheetwhile the Trump administration has considered incentives to encourage American corporations to repatriate funds parked outside the country. This tax treatment is by no means assured but if this is coupled with higher interest ratesthe dollar should appreciate. That would put downward pressure on other global currenciesand could also lead to fluctuations in commodity prices in the international market. That in turn could bring further uncertainties to the global economy.

第二,我国经济正处于供应侧结构性变革的攻坚阶段。从“去杠杆”看,实体企业(尤其是国有企业)的财物负债率居高不下,不只严峻限制了“去产能、去库存”的深化和公司并购、财物重组的有用打开,并且给守住不发作系统性金融危险底线带来危险。但要实在“去杠杆”,一方面弥补本钱性资金的缺口巨大;另一方面,还或许给作业、产量、商场甚至经济添加带来新的不确定性。对此,既需求方针面的统筹和谐安排,也需求有满足的消化和操作时刻。从“降本钱”看,2015年以来的减税减费和降息等举动的成效正在闪现;一起,PPI添加率自20169月今后开端上行,也给实体企业带来了盈余水平上升的商场环境。这些有利条件给“降本钱”供应了杰出的时刻窗口。但要进一步下降实体企业的融资本钱和运营运作本钱,则还有待相关方针的实在落地、体系机制变革的进一步深化和商场交投的活泼。从“补短板”看,群众立异、万众创业和新式工业的打开,使得经济结构中的短板工业规划得到加速扩展,根底设施建造的推动,也为短板工业的打开供应了杰出的外部条件,但国民经济中的短板工业和短板区域仍然缺少满足的出资,打开不平衡、不充分的现象仍然严峻。特别是安排机制的短板和体系机制的短板等,还需求经过进一步深化变革来打通“最终一公里”。总归,经济打开的动能转化到位仍有待时日。Moreoverthe Chinese economy is in a crucial phase of supply-side structural reform. Deleveragingor the reduction of high debt-to-asset ratios of domestic enterprises (especially state-owned companies)could seriously delay progress in reducing excess production capacity and paring high levels of inventories. There is a need for more corporate mergers and acquisitions as well as asset reorganizations to strengthen some of the weaker corporate entities and avert systemic financial risk. Deleveraging will deprive many companies of needed fundsand this could affect outputemployment and economic growth. Thereforethis needs to be done in a gradual way. From the cost perspectivetax cuts and interest rate reductions will help companies.

Meanwhilethe producer price indexafter a prolonged period of negative growthhas picked up since September 2016allowing greater profitability for many upstream producers. These favorable conditions provide a healthier environment for cost reduction. Howeverto further reduce financing and operating costsmore structural supply-side reforms are needed. From the industries hit by overcapacityinnovationentrepreneurship and the development of emerging industries could lead to expansion. Accelerated infrastructure construction could help create the needed external conditions for the development of these struggling industries.

第三,防控系统性金融危险已放到愈加杰出的方位。2016年今后,国务院和相关金融监管部门先后出台了《关于印发互联网金融危险专项整治作业施行方案的告诉》《关于活泼保险下降企业杠杆率的定见》《关于打开银行业“不妥立异、不妥买卖、不妥鼓励、不妥收费”专项办理作业的告诉》和《关于银行业危险防控作业的辅导定见》等一批标准性文件,对化解和防控系统性金融危险起到了活泼、重要的效果。但冰冻三尺非一日之寒,化冰三尺也非一日之工。要有用修正实体企业和金融安排的财物负债表,在“财物-负债-财物”的联动机制下有用防备金融病毒的感染,需求将各种准金融安排和非金融安排的金融买卖都归入到金融监管视界,以完成金融监管的全掩盖。树立有用的系统性金融危险的预警机制和应急机制,不是一朝一夕之事;因而,在这个过程中,金融危险对我国金融运转和打开的影响还将在不同程度上发作。

In additionthe prevention of systemic financial risk has been given a more prominent position on the policy agenda. Since 2016the State Council and financial regulatory authorities have issued a number of key documents aimed at increasing risk control. These include the Notice on Implementation of Special Rectification on Internet Financial RiskOpinions on Actively and Steadily Reducing the Leverage Rate for EnterprisesSpecial Rectification on Inappropriate InnovationInappropriate TransactionsInappropriate Incentives and Inappropriate Charges  and  Guidance on Prevention and Control of Banking Risks. These problems accumulate over time and it takes more time to solve them. It will also take time to effectively repair the balance sheets of enterprises and financial institutions and establish effective measures against financial contagion. Moreoverefforts must be made to include coverage of quasi-financial institutions and non-financial institutions in the financial regulatory scopein order to achieve full financial supervision.

与此一起,世界经济金融的运转尚不安稳,发作突发性危险的或许性并没有削减:大宗商品价格动摇、石油价格的莫测变幻、美联储缩表引致的世界金融动乱、相关国家或区域之间的买卖战、日本神户制钢丑闻的发酵等等,都或许经过这种或那种途径传递给我国,添加我国防控系统性金融危险的难度。此外,跟着人民币世界方位的进步和世界功用的增强,美元、英镑和日元的世界影响力将遭到对应的影响,由此,在世界间抢夺话语权、买卖权(包含计价权和清算权等)和储藏权的钱银战役,会经过各条途径以各种方式打开。这既会添加我国面临的世界金融危险,也将给人民币驻篮的安稳带来新的应战。

At the same timethere are still uncertainties in the international economic and financial realm and there is a possibility of a sudden emergence of risks. Fluctuations in commodity pricesunpredictable oil pricespossible financial turmoil stemming from the shrinking of the Federal Reserve's balance sheettrade wars and the Kobe Steel production scandal in Japan could have an impact on China. This could increase the difficulty of controlling systemic financial risks in China. In additionwith the improvement of the international status and the enhancement of international functions of the renminbithe international influence of the dollarthe pound and the yen will be affected accordingly. Thusthe fight for a greater voice in the international arenathe right to trade (including pricing power) and the currency war for reserves will start in various forms. This will increase international financial risks facing China and bring new challenges to the stability of the renminbi in the reserve basket.

作者单位:我国人民大学财金学院、我国财务和金融方针研究中心

The author is from China Finance and Financial Policy Research Center of School of Finance at Renmin University of China.

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