双语丨钟伟:经济新渠道财物再装备

发布:2017-11-13 15:34 来历: 《我国Betway体育》2017年第18期 作者:钟伟

经济新渠道财物再装备

Asset Allocation in a New Economic Environment

文/钟伟

By Zhong Wei

我国经济是否进入新周期,是近来各界热议的论题。在这一评论的背面能够看到,2015年以来,全球及我国经济呈现的一些显着改动。

There has been considerable debate in China as to whether the economy has turned the corner or entered a new cycle. As background to this debate,it is clear that there have been some significant changes in China and the rest of the global economy since 2015.

全球经济趋稳,但增加偏弱且立异缺乏。自2014年末美联储宣告退出量化宽松以来,全球经济逐渐趋稳,且本来越不被看好的经济体改进越显着。典型的比如是上一年的俄罗斯及巴西,以及本年的欧元区及日本。这是因为,全球立异动能的全体缺乏导致了增加改进更多地呈现出均值回归的特色。我国经济自2010年三季度以来增加持续下行的态势也发生了改动,呈现出显着的全体趋稳、趋好痕迹。

The global economy is certainly stabilizing but growth remains weak. In late 2014,as the global economy continued to find its footing,the Federal Reserve announced it would withdraw from its innovative policy of quantitative easing. Economies that were widely seen as being in particular trouble started to show significant improvement. These included Russia and Brazil last year as well as the eurozone and Japan this year. This is partly due to the fact that amid a lack of momentum in global innovation,growth has improved,largely due to what we could classify as statistical regression,or a return to more normal levels. In China,the economy had been showing a steady slowing since the third quarter of 2010,but that trend has changed,and there are clear signs of an overall economic improvement.

全球首要经济体连续离别通缩,且通胀仍不是显着要挟。居民消费和大宗商品价格逐渐趋稳,弱复苏和资源产品的宽松平衡,使得人们并不忧虑通胀东山再起。我国也离别了比东亚危机时期还严峻的通缩,当下通胀局势温文。

As the world's major economies post better growth,they have left their deflation problems behind. Yet inflation is still not a significant threat. A stabilizing of retail spending and commodity prices coupled with a generally modest recovery of resource prices means that there is still no need to sound the alarm over a potential rebound of inflation. China has emerged from a prolonged period of deflation -- one that was actually worse than that after the Asian crisis in 1997-1998. And in China the pace of inflation is also moderate.

反危机的影响办法全体在撤火。因为美、欧的经济增加和通胀水平均不及预期,美联储的加息缩表、欧央行的退出量宽进程都呈边走边看的态势。鉴于我国经济增加已从10%以上降至6%-7%的渠道,物价也从3%降至1%-2%,钱银供应速度显着放缓实属必定。我国不只不再强调强影响,并且对金融和地产等职业采取了严峻的调控办法。

Monetary authorities around the world are now withdrawing the innovative stimulus measures rolled out to counter the global crisis. Economic growth and inflation in the United States and Europe remain lower than expected,and the Federal Reserve is proceeding cautiously with its plans to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet. The European Central Bank has been similarly careful in unwinding its policies of quantitative easing. Given that China's economic growth has dropped from above 10% to a range of 6% to 7%,and retail prices have slowed from 3% to 1% to 2%,a significant slowdown in money supply growth is inevitable. China is no longer stressing the need for strong economic stimulus,and it is making use of strict controls on the finance and real estate sectors.

经济的真假和谐日益重要,道阻且长。怎么坚持实体经济与虚拟经济(尤其是财物价格)之间的良性联系和和谐开展,是摆在各首要经济体面前的问题,而我国所倡议的“立异、和谐、绿色、敞开、同享”的新开展理念正逐渐家喻户晓。

The path to greater coordination between the real or underlying economy and the financial sector is a growing challenge. This is especially true in the area of asset prices in the major economies. China may have some ideas these key economies could borrow,notably Beijing's new development concept featuring "innovation,coordination,greenness,openness and sharing." This concept is already gaining traction.

综上,说新周期也罢,朱格拉周期也罢,包含我国在内的世界经济,在次贷危机十年后,毫无疑问将走向新渠道,展示新气味。根据这样的宏观经济布景,咱们才干从而评论怎么调整财物装备战略。

Whether we are seeing a new cycle or just a drawn out Juglar cycle (named after the French economist Clement Juglar),China and other economies are already on a new level as compared with the days around the time of the subprime mortgage crisis a decade ago. With this kind of macroeconomic foundation as a starting point,we can discuss how to adjust asset allocations.

我国权益财物是价值凹地,出资宜掌握三大主线,耐性是要害。与估值较高的美、欧、日股市比较,自次贷危机以来我国股市并无显着上升,现在估值处于25分位的稳健水平,所在的经济周期和权益估值,乃至商场心情都很类似于2004年。许多人尚在诘问变革在哪里?其实,变革在于开展理念的剧变,也在于经济影响从放到收;变革在于供应侧变革使得实体经济得以提质增效,也在于央企已悄然缩减到98家;变革更在于立异付出了价值也收获到一些果实。当然,变革尚在路上,关于我国A股,要有更多的耐性和决心。

China’s equity assets are a value pool and we should be patient about the payoff. China's stock market has not shown significant improvement since the subprime mortgage crisis. The stock markets of the United States,Europe and Japan all have higher valuations. The situation in China at the moment,in terms of where we are in the economic cycle,the level of equity values and market sentiment,is very similar to that of 2004. Many people are still asking where the domestic reform program has gone. In fact,the reform program is actually demonstrating a change in its very concept. We are shifting from the encouragement of economic stimulus to the discouragement of stimulus. Reforms now refer to supply-side structural changes that will improve the efficiency of the real economy. These include reducing the number of enterprises under the central government to 98. To be sure,reforms are under way. But this kind of innovation carries an economic price. Results may not be apparent at first. For the Chinese A share market,there is a need for greater patience mixed with confidence in eventual success.

如果说权益类财物值得超配,出资主题则可指向国企混改、消费晋级和立异生长。其间,最应寄予厚望的是国企变革。混改标的在边沿上显着改进是大概率事情,而立异生长则更像去粗取精。以资源类为代表的周期股、受调控束缚的金融股和地产股,很或许会持续有不错的体现。职业洗牌中,龙头企业是不贰之选。

If equity assets deserve greater attention in the allocation of our investments,our focus might be turned to those areas that are affected by the reform of state-owned enterprises,the upgrading of consumer tastes and innovative growth. The most promising area might be in reforming state-owned enterprises. There is a bigger probability of achieving success in such reforms than in innovative growth,where the failure rate could be relatively high. In the meantime,we could also see strong growth in cyclical stocks such as resources,financials and property while railroad stocks could also be big beneficiaries of rotational investment.

流动性依然很重要,尤其是人民币现金。债市方面,跟着实体经济的温文改进,以及央行推进流动性常态化的明朗化,信誉债和含权债的远景或许比单纯的利率债更好。因而,坚持流动性的富余十分重要。就人民币流动性而言,信任优先级和非保本银行理财或许是稳健之选。

Liquidity is critical to investment allocation. For that reason,traditional corporate bonds and convertible bonds may be better than debt that carries deferred interest. As the real economy gradually improves,the central bank will be promoting more transparent and reliable liquidity levels. And in terms of liquid renminbi assets,trust investments without a guaranteed principal may be better options.

一起,人民币和美元比较或许更好,利率和汇率大势均如此。虽然人民币依然比欧元等要弱,但其估值修正或更为坚实。如无危机事情的冲击,稳健的人民币准现金财物体现或许不弱于黄金,乃至好于利率债。

Renminbi and US dollar investments may be better choices than other currencies if we consider interest rates and exchange rates. Although the renminbi remains weaker than the euro,it has been on a somewhat firmer track. If we do not encounter any new crises,renminbi quasi-cash assets may be better than gold and will no doubt be better than deferred interest debt.

地产暴升论能够休矣。次贷危机后,我国楼市阅历了剧烈调整后的凶狠上涨;但时至今日,房地产职业已在洗牌,区域商场已在分解,职业集中度缓慢进步。当时,除了中心城市和少数的都市圈周边小城市,房价暴升已是水中月。不过,这也给大都市的殷实阶级带来了住宅“以旧换新”的窗口期。至少在年内,地产的龙头股体现应还不错。

As for real estate,the boom might be over. After the subprime mortgage crisis,the Chinese property market experienced a sharp increase. But as of today,the real estate sector has undergone a major adjustment. Regional markets have shown sharp divergences,with some markets performing well and others still sluggish. At present,skyrocketing prices are evident in key cities and in core areas of a few smaller cities. This has also been favorable to those wealthy enough to have an apartment in a metropolitan area. They still have an opportunity to trade up. There has also been a further concentration of the market,with bigger firms gaining ground. At least through the year-end,the leading property shares will have a strong performance.

我国经济进入新渠道,决议了咱们看待已进行的增加转型以及可等待的经济愿景时,能够更为达观,而不是置疑和失望。在如此的认知下,在财物战略装备层面,宜以权益类优先,准现金也有必要,一线城市地产的价格亦有上涨地步。国企混改、消费晋级和立异生长则是未来可等待的出资首要头绪。

China's economy has reached a new level and that makes us more optimistic when we look at the transformation of growth that is under way. As far as asset allocations are concerned in this environment,it is preferable to stick with equity and quasi-cash,while there is also some room for growth in prices of real estate in first-tier cities. The reforms of state-owned enterprises,consumer product upgrading and innovation growth are good guidelines for future investment.

作者系本刊副主编、北京师范大学金融系教授

The author is associate editor of China Forex and associate professor at the department of finance at Beijing Normal University.