跳出“本钱外逃”之争看净差错与遗失

发布:2017-09-30 14:14 来历: 《我国Betway体育》2017年第15期 作者:管涛
我国国际出入平衡表中的“净差错与遗失”长时间为负且规划较大的问题,再次引起了商场热议。
我国国际出入平衡表中的“净差错与遗失”长时间为负且规划较大的问题,再次引起了商场热议。有观念以为,这反映了我国存在较为严峻的本钱外逃现象,因而不能简略地将近年来国家Betway体育储藏的削减理解为“藏汇于民”。可是,争议净差错与遗失是不是本钱外逃,其实践方针含义不大,更重要的作业应该是下降净差错与遗失占比,进步国际出入的计算质量,更好地为宏观决策和商场剖析服务。
The "net errors and omissions" in China's balance of payments data have long exhibited two traits - being large and largely negative. In the past this has often been interpreted as a sign of a serious problem with capital flight. Now,it is attracting market attention once again. Some economists downplay the significance of a reduction in the nation's official foreign exchange reserves in recent years,insisting it is the result of "foreign exchange now held by the people." However,the argument over whether net errors and omissions reflect capital flight has little practical significance. It is more important to reduce the ratio of net errors and omissions and improve the quality of statistics on the balance of payments in order to better serve the market analysis and macroeconomic decision-making ability of the nation's policy makers.
 
各国国际出入平衡表中都设有“净差错与遗失”项目。依据国际标准,国际出入平衡表选用复式记账准则编制。为使平衡表在假贷两个方向上一向能够坚相等衡,平衡表中设置了“净差错与遗失”项。可是,“净差错与遗失”项目是轧差出来的,不是计算出来的,仅仅国际出入平衡表的平衡项目。
Over an extended period,there is a correlation between capital flight and negative net errors and omissions. Every country deals with net errors and omissions items in its balance of payments data,and in accordance with global standards,the international balance of payments is prepared using the principles of double entry bookkeeping. In order to strike a balance in the balance sheet in both directions of debits and credits,the net errors and omissions item is set in the balance sheet. However,net errors and omissions are not calculated from statistics. They are merely a category used to reach a balance in international payments and receipts.
 
净差错与遗失既或许是因为计算原因发生的,也或许是因为经济原因导致的。就前者(计算原因)而言,我国国际出入平衡表的编制是以国际出入计算申报数据为根底的,并综合利用了海关、商务部、人民银行、旅游局等其他相关数据。因为来自多个部分和不同计算体系的数据与国际出入计算在概念、口径、记载准则上不尽相同,再加上各部分的数据难以对一切买卖进行全面记载,因而,在将这些数据汇总至国际出入平衡表中时就或许会构成差错与遗失。就后者(经济原因)而言,净差错与遗失则或许反映了未被记载到的跨境本钱活动,俗称“热钱流入”或许“本钱外逃”。
Net errors and omissions may be due either to statistical or economic factors. China’s balance of payments figures are based on statistical data from the Customs Administration,the Ministry of Commerce,the People's Bank of China,the Tourism Bureau and other departments. The data from these diverse arms of the government are compiled from different statistical systems which differ in terms of concept,scope,dimension and recording principles. It is difficult to record all transactions in each sector. Therefore,when the data are aggregated,there may be errors and omissions. As for economic factors,net errors and omissions may reflect unrecognized cross-border capital flows,commonly known as "hot money inflows" or "capital flight."
 
理论上讲,假如净差错与遗失首要是由计算原因所造成的,那么其方向应该是时正时负的随机散布。如美国国际出入平衡表中高频的季度净差错与遗失数值一般较大,但低频的年度数值一般较小。因为在一年四季中,其数值有正有负,全年轧差后净值就会大为缩小。例如,2000年,美国各季的净差错与遗失与国际出入口径的货物交易进出口总额之比分别为+12.7%、-8.1%、-10.4%和-6.7%,但年度之比却为-3.3%;2005年,季度份额分别为+10.8%、+15.1%、-7.6%和-12.0%,年度之比却为+1.2%。2000年一季度至2016年四季度的68个季度中,美国有40 个季度上述份额超出正负5%,但在2000—2016年的17年间,美国只要一年该份额超出5%。
Theoretically speaking,if the net errors and omissions are mainly due to statistical factors,there should be a stochastic distribution of negative and positive tallies. The quarterly net errors and omissions in the balance of payments statistics of the United States are usually larger than China's,but the annual frequency is smaller due to frequent shifts from positive to negative over the year. For example,in 2000 the ratio of the US net errors and omissions to the total value of US imports and exports was +12.7% in the first quarter,- 8.1% in the second,- 10.4% in the third and -6.7% in the fourth,but the annual ratio was  - 3. 3%. In 2005 the quarterly ratios were +10.8%,+15.1%,- 7.6% and -12.0%,but the annual figure was + 1.2%. Of 68 quarters from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2016,there were 40 quarters with ratios exceeding + 5% or -5% in the US. But in the 17 years from 2000 to 2016,there was only one year where the ratio exceeded 5%,and that was + 5.8% in 2009.
 
假如净差错与遗失数值长时间为正或许为负,则或许反映了未被记载的热钱流入或许本钱外逃问题较为杰出。据此对2009年以来我国国际出入平衡表中的“净差错与遗失”年度数值一向为负(2002—2008年则接连为正)的状况进行判别,就有理由置疑有些本钱外流未被计算,从而被贴上“本钱外逃”的标签。特别是2015年和2016年,其各季数值继续为负,更高度疑似。2015年,我国各季的净差错与遗失与货物交易进出口总额之比分别为-7.5%、-1.4%、-9.5%和-5.0%,年度之比为-4.9%;2016年,各季份额分别为-5.6%、-5.5%、-8.2%和-6.0%,年度之比为-5.4%。
If the net errors and omissions remain positive or negative for a prolonged period,it may reflect a serious problem of unrecorded hot money inflows or capital flight. Judging from the fact that since 2009 the annual value of the net errors and omissions in China's international payments position has been negative (the category was continuously positive between 2002 and 2008),there is reason to suspect that some capital outflows were not recorded and these were then labeled as "capital flight." In 2015 and in 2016,every quarter showed a negative value and this looked particularly suspicious. In 2015,the ratio of net errors and omissions to the total of imports and exports was -7.5% in the first quarter,- 1.4% in the second,- 9.5% in the third and -5.0% in the fourth,with an annual ratio of - 4.9%. In 2016,the quarterly ratios were -5.6%,- 5.5%,- 8.2% and -6.0% respectively,with an annual ratio of -5.4%.
 
将净差错与遗失等同于本钱外逃,必定能够从计算或许经济的视点找到许多理由予以辩驳(详见国家Betway体育办理局国际出入剖析小组《2014年我国国际出入陈述》“专栏1:净差错与遗失负值≠本钱外逃规划”);一起,“净差错与遗失”中,终究多少应该归为计算原因,多少应该归为经济原因,在经济原因中,又有多少应该归为常常项目收入高估原因,多少应该归为本钱流出轻视原因,也并无一致的量化标准,使本钱外逃成了一个公说公有理、婆说婆有理的“黑箱”。更为要害的是,这种争辩大多有学术含义,而缺少实操价值。
Whether negative net errors and omissions reflect capital flight does not affect policy judgments and responses. There are many who argue that based on either statistical data or economic analysis,net errors and omissions should not be equated with capital flight. At the same time,it is difficult to say which components of the net errors and omissions should be attributed to statistical reasons as opposed to economic reasons. Looking at economic reasons,it is difficult to say how many should be attributed to the overestimation of the earnings on the current account or be attributed to the underestimation of capital outflows. The lack of a uniform standard makes it hard to give any justifiable explanation for capital flight. This is of some academic significance though it lacks practical value.
 
一是不管净差错与遗失为负是不是本钱外逃,都不能改动近年来我国本钱外流状况一度较为严峻的客观现实。其实,判别一国本钱外流状况,只需将国际出入平衡表中的非储藏性质的本钱与金融账户(简称“本钱项目”)差额同净差错与遗失额相加即可。据此,咱们能够清楚地看到,2015年,我国常常项目顺差3042亿美元,本钱项目逆差(含净差错与遗失)6471亿美元,因为本钱外流超出了常常项目盈利,Betway体育储藏财物削减了3423亿美元;2016年,常常项目顺差1964亿美元,削减了35%,本钱项目逆差6400亿美元,与上年根本相等,Betway体育储藏财物削减4487亿美元,较上年多减了31%。 这时,假如想一起完成保汇率和保储藏方针,加强跨境本钱活动办理就成为必定的方针挑选,至于“净差错与遗失”是不是本钱外逃并不重要。
First,regardless of whether the negative net errors and omissions reflect capital flight,it is undeniable that China's capital outflow situation has been severe in recent years. To calculate total capital outflows,add the difference between the non-reserve capital and the financial account in the balance of payments to the net errors and omissions. In 2015,China's current account surplus reached US$304.4 billion and the deficit on the capital account (including net errors and omissions) reached US$647.1 billion. Due to the fact that the capital outflows surpassed the surplus on the current account,the nation's foreign exchange reserves decreased by US$342.3 billion. In 2016,the surplus on the current account reached US$196.4 billion,down 35% from the previous year. The deficit on the capital account was US$640 billion,which was basically flat with the previous year. Foreign exchange reserve assets decreased by US$448.7 billion US dollars,or 31% from the previous year. If authorities want to achieve the targets of maintaining the exchange rate and the foreign exchange reserves,they need to strengthen cross-border capital flow management. Therefore,whether "net errors and omissions" reflect capital flight is not important.
 
二是不管净差错与遗失是不是本钱外逃,有必要对短期本钱活动冲击危险采纳决断办法已毋庸置疑。理论上,一般将净差错与遗失同国际出入平衡表中的证券出资和其他出资都归入短期本钱活动(又称非直接出资方式的本钱活动)。据此测算,从2014年起,我国短期本钱继续净流出,它与根底国际出入顺差(即常常项目与直接出资顺差之和)之比,2014年为-69%,2015年为-192%,2016年为-396%。无疑,短期本钱活动已成为导致前期我国储藏下降、汇率跌落的首要原因。而短期本钱活动首要受心情唆使,往往会违背经济根本面,特别在商场遍及看空的心情下,多重均衡简单导致坏的成果。因而,正是在加强跨境本钱活动办理,按捺本钱集中流出的一起,改进了汇率调控,进步了汇率方针的公信力,才获得了2017年上半年汇率维稳作业的超预期成功。
Second,regardless of whether net errors and omissions reflect capital flight,measures need to be taken to prevent risks from short-term capital flows. In theory,this usually classifies net errors and omissions and the securities investments of the international balance of payments along with other investments as short-term capital flows (also known as capital flows in the form of non-direct investment). According to this calculation,from 2014 onwards,China's short-term capital continued in the form of net outflow,and its ratio to the surplus of the basic balance of payments (that is,the sum of the current account and direct investment surplus) in 2014 was - 69%,followed by -192% in 2015 and -396% in 2016. Undoubtedly,the short-term capital flows have become the main reason for the decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves and the decline in the exchange rate. Short-term capital flows are mainly driven by emotions,and they tend to disregard economic fundamentals. Therefore,it is in the strengthening of cross-border capital flow management and the curbing of concentrated capital outflows that we can improve control over the exchange rate and buttress the credibility of exchange rate policy. This was responsible for the unexpected success in maintaining a steady exchange rate in the first half of 2017.
 
三是企图办理“净差错与遗失”项下不可知的本钱外逃,不免无处着力;而针对可监测和可监管的买卖施行办理,则可达事半功倍的作用。2013年年头,经过虚拟内地与香港之间的转口交易进行套利套汇行为盛行,引发了海关、商务、Betway体育等部分的联合行动、协同监管,及时遏止了由此途径的热钱流入。当年的净差错与遗失仍为负值629亿美元。2016年,因为对外直接出资反常增加,长时间本钱活动呈现短期化趋势,使得国际出入口径的直接出资由顺差转为逆差,导致当年在短期本钱净流出削减17%的状况下,根底国际出入顺差削减60%,致使Betway体育储藏财物降幅扩展。2016年年末开端标准国内企业“走出去”行为,2017年上半年,国际出入口径的对外直接出资净流出即同比削减67%,跨境直接出资也由逆差从头转为顺差。同期,常常项目顺差同比下降35%,根底国际出入顺差增加40%,短期本钱活动差额与根底国际出入顺差之比由-359%降至-66%。这是2017年上半年除掉估值效应后Betway体育储藏财物变化由负转正的首要原因。我国防备跨境本钱活动冲击获得了超预期的成功。别的,只重视净差错与遗失而忽视披着合法外衣、记载在常常或本钱项下的本钱外逃(如跨国公司经过内部定价搬运赢利的做法),明显也是捉襟见肘。
Third,managing an unknown quantity of capital flight under "net errors and omissions" is often ineffective. However,there can be surprising successes in supervising transactions which can be monitored and managed. In early 2013,there were significant distortions in transshipments through Hong Kong,and this prompted a coordinated response from Customs,the Commerce Ministry and foreign exchange authorities to stem an inflow of hot money. The net errors and omissions that year were a negative US$62.9 billion. In 2016,there was an abnormal growth of foreign direct investment and a change in long-term capital flows,and this turned a surplus of direct investment in the balance of payments into a deficit. There was a 17% reduction in short-term net capital outflows,and the surplus on the basic international earnings and expenditures was reduced by 60%,resulting in the expansion of foreign exchange reserve assets. In late 2016,authorities began to tighten their grip on the offshore investment activities of domestic enterprises. In the first half of 2017,the net foreign investment outflow of the international earnings and expenditures fell by 67% compared to the same period last year,and cross-border direct investment swung from deficit to surplus. In the same period,the current account surplus fell 35% compared to last year,and the surplus of the basic balance of payments increased by 40%. The ratio of short-term capital flow differences to the surplus on the basic international balance of payments decreased from -359% to -66%. This is the main reason for the changes in foreign exchange reserves turning from negative to positive when adjusting for currency valuation effects. China's efforts to prevent cross-border capital flows have achieved a better-than-expected success. In addition,it is a losing battle if authorities only cling to the net errors and omissions calculation while ignoring capital flight under the current or capital account,such as multinational companies moving profits offshore through transfer pricing.
 
四是贴上“本钱外逃”的标签,实践是对本钱外流做出了片面的品德判别,恐难获得一致。站在不同的态度,对本钱流出终究是好的本钱外流仍是坏的本钱外流,定论一般不同。并且,现在净差错与遗失为负问题重入大众视界,很大程度与商场心情有关。如前所述,这种状况早在2009年就开端呈现,但在2013年之前,对此问题的重视度一向不太高。当时,只不过是在看空人民币的心情下,咱们又将这个问题当作一个负面新闻来炒作算了(亚洲金融危机时期发生过相似的状况)。与此相似,前些年人民币汇率面对单边增值压力时,咱们炒作的焦点则是热钱流入。
Fourth,the label of "capital flight" is a subjective moral judgment of capital outflow,and this makes it difficult to reach a consensus. It also results in different,subjective conclusions about whether such capital outflows are good or bad. Moreover,the fact that the negative net errors and omissions are emerging into public view has a lot to do with market sentiment. As mentioned earlier,such a situation appeared as early as in 2009,but very little attention was paid to this issue before 2013. When the view towards the yuan is bearish,the public focuses on errors and omissions. Likewise,only a few years ago,when the yuan was under steady appreciation pressure,the public speculation focused on hot money inflows.
 
作者系我国金融四十人论坛高档研究员
The author is a senior researcher at the China Finance 40 Forum