【双语】我国金融的新“国际榜首”

发布:2017-07-07 14:54 来历: 我国Betway体育网

导语:人民币国际化不具有前四大储藏钱银的兴起的前史条件,所以人民币国际化有必要另辟蹊径,才干给“一带一路”的建造输血。现在从全球全体的新金融格式来看,我国对国际金融的最大奉献便是第三方付出。我国的科技金融现已是肯定的国际榜首,我国的第三方付出运用量是美国的五十倍,且在知识产权范畴,我国也在金融科技职业里排名前三。所以不管从技能含量仍是商场阅历来说,我国的金融科技尤其是第三方付出现已是不行争议的国际榜首,因而可成为人民币国际化的重要起点。并且第三方付出和金融科技能够更好地推行全球性的普惠金融,不仅能大大下降反洗钱、反恐惧融资、反核扩散融资、反糜烂,还可处理非传统性的金融风险等问题,是大势所趋。此外,这也是我国作为SDR第五大储藏钱银兴起的重要条件之一。

 

作者:陈捷,鲁雪岩,Przemyslaw Leszczynski

By Lu Xueyan, Chen Jie and Przemyslaw Leszczynski

作者单位:

Chen Jie is a researcher at Research Center on International Cooperation Regarding Persons Sought for Corruption and Asset Recovery in G20 Member States.

Lu Xueyan is researcher of People’s Bank of China.

Przemyslaw Leszczynski is from Beijing Foreign Studies University.

 

“一带一路”人民币国际化

The Belt and Road Renminbi

 

英镑的兴起依托的是“日不落帝国”年代殖民地国家和区域的商场。政治军事殖民尽管完毕,可是经济上依然具有肯定优势,英镑的广泛运用也是天经地义的。并且,即便在其他4大钱银兴起后,英镑不仅能坚持其强壮的独立性,并没有归入欧元区,还运用美元和欧元之间的博弈,安定了自己的生存空间。

The pound sterling's rise to a dominant global role was founded on Britain's era of colonial conquest -- when the crown had an empire on which the sun never set. The regionalization of markets gave the currency a further boost and to this day the pound still plays a major role in the global financial system. Even though colonial domination is long gone, the British economy continues to show plenty of punch. And while the pound now shares center stage with four other big currencies it has held its own between the euro and the dollar, solidifying its own “living space.”

 

美元的操控的前史环境更是得天独厚。两次国际大战,美国除了珍珠港遭受突击意外,其本乡到达了无缺的保存与展开。战后的“马歇尔计划”和“布雷顿森林系统”在适当长的一段时间内确立了美元的霸主位置。靠着黄金美元和产能输出,操控了国际经济近30年。即便是后来的“牙买加系统”和三次石油危机,也没有撼动美元霸权的位置。并且石油美元的位置,从生产展开的视点看,比黄金美元更具有合理行。至于页岩气革新,还仅仅一个故事。

The ascendancy of the US dollar was partly a result of America's rich resources. The US is generously endowed by nature. Shielded by geography, it was spared much of the horror of World War II. With the exception of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, the US was largely insulated from attacks on its soil. It emerged from the war as an economic powerhouse even as much of Europe was in ruins. The post-war Marshall Plan and the Bretton Woods System established the domination of the dollar in the following decades. Relying on backing from gold and US industrial muscle, the dollar managed to maintain its sway over the global economy. Repeated oil crises failed to shake the dollar's status. The rise of oil mean the rise of petrodollars, and that ultimately was viewed as more reasonable than a dollar based on gold.

欧元的诞生源于欧洲一体化的进程。尽管欧洲在二战之后被打的千疮百孔,在“马歇尔计划”和“布雷顿森林系统”年代受美元的操控,可是因为欧洲民族血缘、文明、经济的趋同性,欧盟很快展开起来,并开端以德国马克和法国法郎应战美元。在自动切段美元和黄金的联络后,欧元跟着欧盟的展开应运而生。尤其是在民族血缘上,欧洲大陆的日尔曼民族和法兰西民族的文明根由要超越美英加澳新五大盎格鲁撒克逊的影响,欧洲大陆运用德语和法语的区域要远远超越英语,基督教的影响也要大于新教。所以从二战中恢复元气的欧洲一分钟都不想受美国和美元的操控。因而,欧元的生命力是来自于民族、文明、经济、宗教等多方面的。尽管欧元也阅历过美元和英镑的夹攻,并在金融危机后收到严峻影响,但现在实力犹存。

The birth of the euro originated from the extended process of European integration. After World War II, Europe was flat on its back, clearing the way for a dominant dollar. However, Europe gradually moved towards greater political and economic cooperation, eventually becoming the EU. This was hastened by European heritage, culture, shared values and economic interests. The dollar faced a challenge from the German mark and the French franc. Later, a bold effort to compete with the dollar and gold, the grand project of a single currency -- the euro -- ultimately took shape. In the end after recovery from World War II, Europe within a short time had changed its course - from accepting the US dollar as a world’s currency to the creation of Europe’s own single currency. Therefore, the vitality of the euro has its core national ties, cultural background, economic commonwealth, and religion. Although the euro has also experienced many attacks from the dollar and the pound and even after the financial crisis breakdown which had a serious impact on the eurozone, its current strength still exists.

日元的快速展开一方面是日本早就有“脱亚入欧”的思维,另一方面在二战后的政治、经济和军事上得到美国的大力支撑,这也是为遏止我国和苏联。以此为条件,日本的制造业和全球买卖迅猛展开。日本在电器、大型机械和轿车范畴的展开在上世纪八十年代成为国际榜首。所以日元的展开不行阻挠。可是,美国经过“广场协议”,严峻冲击了日本经济和日元。并且欧元和人民币的展开也揉捏了日元空间。所以日元现在是半老徐娘,但仍是有一点风韵犹存。                                                       The rapid development of the yen is on the one hand a result of Japan’s shift in ideological thinking. It chose to abandon old Asian ways to learn from Europe. After World War II it benefited from political, economic and military support from the United States. China and the Soviet Union were kept at bay by the Western powers at that time. Moreover, Japan's manufacturing industry and global trade were undergoing rapid development. Thanks to Japan’s prowess in manufacturing electrical equipment, large-scale machinery and automobiles it secured its place as one of world’s leading economies. The yen was winning a place among the leading currencies. However, through the Plaza accord, the US dealt a serious blow to the Japanese economy and the yen. Direct implication is that over time the euro and the renminbi filled the space as the yen lost ground. Therefore the yen is like a fading flower which still possesses its charm and remains attractive but has seen its day.    

从上述剖析看,人民币的国际化没有四大储藏钱银的前史优势,没有战役重建和大国的支撑,国际上有的仅仅竞赛和揉捏。咱们靠自己经济的长时间高速展开,成为国际第二大经济体,但人民币国际化的进程与此还不相匹配,必定程度上仍是需求盯住美元。

The renminbi never held any dominant position in the global economy in the past. China had no support from the US or the UK for a bigger international role. Yet the strength of the Chinese economy made the world take notice of the importance of the renminbi. In the international arena there is only fierce competition and a constant contest for dominance. China relied on its own rapid economic development to become the world's second largest economy. The process of the internationalization of the renminbi needs to make further gains to fully reflect this status.

 

以第三方付出为中心的“金融科技”的表现

The “Belt and Road” Strategy and Financial Technology  

我国“一带一路”现已步入第二阶段:继“六个斯坦”、“蒙古”后,“东盟十国”成为“一带一路”最大经济区。“东盟十国”与我国商场买卖同质性最高的区域。因为“同性相斥”,东盟十国与我国处于敌对联系,可是我国第三方付出现已进入“东盟十国”商场,并且收买了“东盟十国”的部分公司,在东南亚现已有了部分商场与买卖量。

China’s the “Belt and Road" initiative is designed to boost trade and infrastructure ties with more than 60 countries, including the 10 members of ASEAN or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Together these countries form a huge economic zone. The next phase of this important initiative should include significant steps forward in financial technology. China's third-party payment systems have already entered the ASEAN market and Chinese companies have made several acquisitions in the region. Thanks to this, China has been contributing to the rise of Southeast Asia’s trade volume.                                             

传统观念以为:“一带一路”是建筑铁路、公路、码头和机场。但依照前三点剖析,在“马六甲”军事要地展开是非常艰苦的,必定触及大国政治以及军事利益的博弈。据此,咱们能够得出新定论——“建铁公基,不如建机站”,指的便是“金融科技和第三方付出”的金融机站和隶属基础设施。

The traditional assumption has been that the “Belt and Road” initiative is largely focused on the construction of railways, highways, docks and airports. But we can draw another conclusion and that is that building railways is not necessarily as good as constructing stations. This refers to the financial technology and third-party payment system as the financial station and auxiliary infrastructure.                 

例如,蚂蚁金服收买印度“Pay TM”付出公司,并协助其完善基础设施建造,即完结金融科技的基础设施建造(机站、发射塔、线路等)。在“蚂蚁金服”收买印度“Pay TM”公司之前,该公司之前只能供给2000万客户的包容量,可是在“蚂蚁金服”资金注入并进行基础设施建造后,短短一年内,就扩展到2亿的客户包容量。跟着蚂蚁下一步资金投入和金融科技基础建造,终究能够包容5-10亿的运用量,理论上能够到达印度及印度周围国家的全掩盖。并且,该进程润物细无声,不会引起政治动乱,因为技能不带有政治颜色。由此能够得出“金融科技”国际化的两大长处:榜首,避免“马六甲海峡”的政治敏感性,一起也有利于区域安稳;第二,我国在拓宽海外商场的一起供给技能协助并教育怎么运用金融科技,推进更宽广文明交流和技能交流。

For example, Ant Financial Service Group has acquired a leading Indian mobile payment company Pay TM and helped it to improve its business through the construction of new financial and technological infrastructure (stations, transmission towers, communication lines etc.). Before the acquisition of Pay TM India, the company could only provide service to 20 million customers, but after Ant Financial Service Group made its investment, the Indian company had extended its reach to 200 million customers. Along with this kind of assistance, Ant Financial Service Group is ultimately planning to reach between 500 million and 1 billion active users. Eventually, the goal is to provide nationwide service that covers all of India’s population. Moreover, this process should be carried out peacefully and noiselessly so as to avoid unnecessary political chatter. From this one can conclude that there are two major advantages of internationalization of “financial technology.” China is in the process of expanding into overseas markets. It can provide technical assistance and teach others how to use financial technology to promote broader cultural and technical exchanges.                            

依据以上剖析,可得出“一带一路”展开新思路:“一带一路”的基础设施建造不该仅仅是“铁公基”,而应是“金机”,即“金融科技”的基础设施(例如机站、发射塔、网络和商场)的构建。并且,这个进程中协助“欠发达区域”进行技能教育、商场的拓宽,以此推进人民币的买卖、清算和储藏,从而推进人民币的国际化与“一带一路”的结合。

Based on this analysis, the “Belt and Road” initiative may develop a new way of thinking. Construction of infrastructure along the “Belt and Road” region promises not only new railways, ports and cargo airports but also a monetary base for further economic development. This also will help underdeveloped countries carry out necessary technological education and expand their own domestic markets. This will also promote transactions in renminbi. Without a doubt this will push forward the internalization of the renminbi and help integrate that with the “Belt and Road” initiative.

 

以第三方付出为中心“金融科技”的竞赛优势

Competitive Advantages of Third Party Payments

跟着国际各国反糜烂、反洗钱、反恐惧融资作业的深化,现金的运用量大大削减。印度政府最近出台方针:收买商场上流转20%以上的现金,进行付出形式更新,包含信用卡、第三方付出和生物科技在付出形式上的运用(人脸、生物辨认),从而削减现金的运用,避免糜烂、洗钱和恐惧融资。因为现金用来受贿和私运,都不会留下痕迹,从别的一个视点表现了“现金为王”。但假如归入付出系统,一切的糜烂资金都会留下痕迹,各异被反洗钱金融情报中心监控到,并“由钱及人”,助力“追逃追赃”。

With the deepening of anti-corruption, anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing in the world, the use of cash has been greatly reduced. In order to modernize its payment model the Indian government has recently introduced a policy to buy more than 20% of the circulating cash in the market. That includes the use of credit cards, third party payments and biotechnology in the payment model (facial recognition system, biometrics), so that the use of ready money, preventing corruption, money laundering and terrorist financing will be significantly reduced. This is carried out because cash that is being used for bribery and smuggling doesn’t leave any traces. If a new payment system is set up, the ill-gotten funds will leave a trail of evidence. Different anti-money laundering intelligence centers would be created to monitor suspicious activities. These would ultimately arrest criminals and recover stolen money and goods.     

在国际大趋势的条件下,我国的“一带一路人民币国际化”在金融科技基础设施范畴建造上走在前列,不光有利于我国的展开,也是协助第三国际国家和欠发达国家发挥后发优势,直接跳动两个阶段,即个人支票和信用卡的运用阶段,进入第三方付出的“金融科技”阶段。并避免“现金为王”带来的糜烂问题。后发优势不光能够消除区域性轻视,还能够真实协助其他国家得到实惠。例如我国就没有像美国相同阅历个人支票运用的年代,美国因为传统消费习气,个人支票和信用卡的运用具有必定的惯性,在消费方法中占绝大份额。因而我国协助其他国家展开第三方付出长处如下:榜首,带动不发达国家发挥后起的优势;第二,本钱上依据金融科技的第三方付出的本钱远远低于支票和信用卡付出。

China's program to internationalize the renminbi by way of the “Belt and Road” initiative will make a key contribution to the construction of financial technology infrastructure. It is not only for China's benefit alone as less developed countries will benefit through the creation of competitive advantages. This will allow them to leap over intermediary phases, namely the use of personal checks and credit cards into the stage of using third-party payment systems. This will also help create more robust anti-corruption mechanisms.                                                   Those advantages are not only capable of eliminating regional discrimination, but can also help other countries obtain tangible benefits. For example, China has not made such extensive use of personal checks as in the United States. Personal checks and credit cards account for a large proportion of domestic consumption in the US. As a result, China can help other countries develop third-party payment systems that provide employment outlets for talented youth and providing useful technology at a cost that is far below that of checks and credit cards.

 

以本钱低为优势的普惠金融与“一带一路”理念的结合

Financial Inclusion and the “Belt and Road”

依据“蚂蚁金服”和“腾讯金融”的核算,以美国为例,从付出本钱上,支票和信用卡的运用本钱约为3%、跨国结算本钱约为7%,本钱极高,贫民简直无法享用;而我国第三方付出本钱在3‰至4‰之间,最多也不会超越6‰,并且跟着我国的技能水平不断提高,处理本钱将会越来越低。在开发本钱上,IBM、EM(存储器)花费约为100亿,而咱们的“云核算”花费仅仅为10-20亿。这样咱们就与美国拉开了距离,咱们供给了全球化的“贫民金融”和“普惠金融”,增加了不发达区域的金融可得性。因为本钱低、普及率高、金融可得性强,因而更契合国际“普惠金融”和“国际贫民金融”的展开理念和形式,也给不发达区域供给缩小与发达区域之间距离的时机。更多的运用我国的第三方付出等金融科技,从而推进人民币的买卖和储藏,使国际金融范畴是“平的”。因而,不管是对政治本钱、经济本钱、企业本钱的剖析,仍是对金融顾客的本钱剖析。金融科技在第三方付出范畴已显着优于现在信用卡和支票付出以及银行传统付出作用,优势呈“数量级”增加清楚明了。从3%至7%下降到3‰至4‰,可见贫民真实得到了普惠。

According to data from Ant Financial Service Group and Tencent, the average cost in payments by check or credit cards are estimated at about about 3%, and transnational settlement costs are about 7%. Those are pretty big numbers, and they are a substantial barrier to the poor. In China, the cost of using third-party payment systems is estimated at 0.03% to 0.04% on average and at no more than 0.06%. As China's technological level continues to improve, processing costs will be lower and lower. From the development cost side, 16 BM, EM (memory unit) expenditure is approximately about 10 billion yuan and our "cloud computing" cost is only 10-20 billion yuan. In that way we have increased a gap between China and United States. We have already provided the globalization of “poor people’s finances” under the banner of "financial inclusiveness." We have thereby made financing more available in underdeveloped areas.                                      This is also a perfect opportunity to narrow the gap between developed and underdeveloped areas. The internationalization of third-party payment system and the internationalization of the renminbi will flatten the financial world, giving rise to new areas with competitive advantages.  No matter how we make our assessments, whether by comparing political costs or economic costs, business costs or costs to consumers, we can see that third-party payments are significantly better than credit cards and checks. Traditional banking will slowly fade away. The advantages of the "order of magnitude" growth are obvious.

从这个视点看不管是从我国利益动身,仍是从“一带一路”出资的国家视点动身都是利国利民的,对商场、顾客和人民币国际化有利。咱们以为建铁路、码头、机场,不如树立金融科技的机站,咱们将以此为条件做进一步的调研。

From this perspective, whether it is from the political interests of China or from the “Belt and Road” national economic investments, all of those will benefit the country the ordinary people, the market, the consumers and the internationalization of the renminbi. We believe that the constructions of railways, docks, airports, are not as good as the establishment of financial technology infrastructure which we refer to as the “station.”

最终,从微观上来看,我国在境外出资建造的铁路现在是赔钱的,其本钱极高。但我国金融科技的机站树立是盈余的,因而现在我国基础设施的建造有狭隘性,下一 步,不仅仅包含的“铁公基”基础设施,更应该包含金融科技相关的基础设施。

Finally, from a macroeconomic view, China is currently losing money on foreign investments in railway construction. Costs are high but the establishment of China's financial technology for the “stations” is much less so. China lacks experience in building foreign infrastructure. The next step should include not only development of classical infrastructure but also financial technology infrastructure.

 

Global Challenges

第三方付出不行能替代银行付出,而不是要扔掉银行付出,所以和传统银行付出没有抵触,仅仅银行付出的立异。依据“FINTEC”的第三方付出商场是银行付出手法的延伸与晋级,但并不与银行的付出相抵触,而是适当于银行展开的“革新”。就比如当年的信用卡替代支票,影响规模之大更有利于普惠大众。假如总是在美国之后,依照美国的传统,将无法跨阶段展开,更无法赶超。

Third-party payments cannot replace bank payments and it cannot lead to an abandoning of the banking system. That means there is no conflict between the new and old platforms. It is merely an innovation for bank payments. The third party payment market based on "FINTEC" is a means for traditional banks to extend their reach and upgrade their services. It is not unlike the time when credit cards first began replacing checks. This time the impact is more beneficial to large groups of people. The United States cannot catch up and enter the next phase as it is hampered by its traditional approach.

国家保护主义的影响

The Impact on Protectionism

出于金融安全的需求各国刚开端也都不会答应,可是第三方付出任能够便当小额民众付出需求,服务“长尾”客户。并且, 依据WTO规矩,商场经济国家的付出商场应该敞开。其典型者,VISA、MASTER就依国际法抢占了银联商场。依照国家安全部们的观念,VISA、MASTER进入我国商场的确影响了我国的金融安全,便当了反华实力的基金活动,甚至有恐惧融资的风险,并以新西兰、伊拉克的实际事例为佐证,但我国仍是尊重了WTO的敞开规矩。相应的,我国的第三方付出也应该得到其他国家的答应。

Due to the need for financial security, many countries are wary of new financial concepts, but third-party payment systems can facilitate managing the needs of small populations and serve "long tail" customers. Moreover, based on World Trade Organization rules, the payment system of market-economy countries need to be more open to competition. Visa and Mastercard, in accordance with international law, have taken some of UnionPay’s market. According to the National Security Department's point of view, Visa and Mastercard affected China's financial security after they entered the Chinese market. They facilitated anti-China financial forces, allowing them to move funds around the country. That also posed new terrorism risks. Examples can be found in destabilized countries such as Iraq. China respects WTO regulations and so should other countries as well – by opening up their countries to Chinese third-party payment systems and giving them permission to run their business.                         

最终,总结一下,第三方付出是对旧次序的冲击,依然具有风险。例如,“生物辨认技能”、“非生物辨认辨认”和“行为辨认”的不完善,仍有着诈骗和盗取账户的风险。加上部分大众对“金融科技”技能的不理解、忧虑也、“备付金”被移用等问题,都有待遇进一步处理、完善。古语有云:“圣人起,而,大盗兴”,金融带来的便当也给洗钱和恐惧主义融资带来了便当。与糜烂范畴的“现金为王”略有不同,金融科技的举世快捷性和快速性,给AML/CFT提出了应战,有如双刃剑,因而,在立异的一起,加强AML/CFT的监管,才干确保金融科技第三方付出的健康展开。

To sum up, the third party payment system has to deal with an old order and it still possesses risks. For example, the imperfections of "biometrics," "non-biometric identification" and "behavioral identification" still allow the systems to be compromised. Individuals may still use deception in order to steal accounts and sensitive data. Some people haven’t fully grasped the implications of "financial technology." They are still afraid of these risks and prefer to use cash. That is why the whole process is still waiting to move upwards to another level.