【双语】(钟伟圆桌)美中央行的加息与缩表:虚仍是实?

发布:2017-06-08 10:14 来历: 我国Betway体育网

美中央行的加息与缩表:虚仍是实?

Interest Rates and Shrinking the Fed Balance Sheet

 

进入2017年以来,金融圈热议的词汇有两个,一个是加息,另一个是缩表。而热词所指向的方针则是美联储和我国央行。越来越多的研讨者重视到,美联储从退出量宽到渐进加息已日益明亮,一同,包含美联储主席耶伦在内的一些官员也在表达对缩短美联储财物负债规划的动机。我国经济则阅历着稳中趋好的现象。中性稳健的钱银方针和金融去杠杆的监管方针调配,推进了商场利率的上升和财物价格的调整。人们也在推测我国央行是否或许会推进缩表进程。加息与缩表两大热词背面的虚虚实实终究怎么?

Since the beginning of 2017, two issues have attracted great attention in financial circles. One is the pace of increases in US interest rates and the other is how soon the Federal Reserve will reduce the size of its balance sheet. Both are likely to have an impact on China's central bank as well as the Fed. The Fed has made clear it has shifted from quantitative easing to gradual increases in interest rates. It has also said it wants to unwind the US$4.5 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet, according to statements by Fed officials, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen. China's economy is showing stable growth. The sound and neutral monetary policy now in effect, combined with regulatory policies that promote financial deleveraging, set the stage for an increase in market interest rates and an adjustment of asset prices. Market players are speculating whether the People's Bank of China will push for what would be a Chinese version of shrinking the domestic balance sheet. Where are US and Chinese interest rates headed and will there be balance sheet reductions in either country? These are among the topics in our latest round table discussion.

主持人:钟  伟 博士,《我国Betway体育》副主编

嘉  宾:管清友 博士, 民生证券 副总裁

      林采宜 博士,国泰君安首席经济学家

Zhong Wei, deputy director of China Forex, leads the discussion with Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities, and Lin Caiyi, chief economist of Guotai Junan Securities.

钟伟:美联储的加息已是实际,但何时美联储会付诸缩表?虽然作为美国量宽的始作俑者的伯南克以为,缩表并不困难。但实际操作中,是否应当缜密酌量美国经济增加的暂时疲弱,财物价格的居高不下,以及世界本钱活动的变局等要素。考虑到量宽扩表归于伯南克的政治遗产,以及耶伦的任期问题等更多要素,两位以为美联储发动缩表需求何种适合条件?有或许会何时履行缩表?

Zhong Wei: The US Federal Reserve has moved to push interest rates higher, but when will it shrink its balance sheet? Former Fed chief Ben Bernanke, the initiator of the quantitative easing policy in the United States, insisted that shrinking the balance sheet would not be difficult. However, the Fed has found that this is in fact not so easy to do. It needs to carefully consider the strength of US economic growth, high asset prices and changes in international capital flows among other factors. In your opinion, given the quantitative easing and the vast enlargement of the balance sheet under Bernanke and his successor Janet Yellen, what are the right conditions for the Fed to reduce the size of the balance sheet? When might this actually take place?

管清友:剖析美联储缩表的适合条件需求首要考量这一轮加息周期的本质。美联储的这一轮紧缩与此前1994年、2004年的两轮是纷歧样的,前两轮有显着的经济过热根底,从耐用品、房地产等需求中能够看到显着过热的态势;但从2015年加息落地的状况来看,其时美国大部分首要经济数据还没有康复到曩昔十年的均值水平。此轮加息,本质上是美联储为了防备未来危险下的钱银方针干涸而进行的钱银方针回归常态化。美国一方面很留意全球经济环境,另一方面很重视金融商场的动摇,而假如为了防备危险的加息却触发了危险,则就舍本求末了。这也就能够了解,为何此轮加息到现在都显分外鸽派。

根据这样的一个本质,考虑到缩表相较加息是更直接的财物出售,美联储缩表大概率将在联邦基金利率回到恰当水平后,一同全球金融环境和美国经济数据处在一个相对温文的布景下才会敞开。再考虑到现在美联储官员的表态,开端缩表的时刻大概率在2017年末到2018年头。

Guan Qingyou: We need to examine the nature of the most recent round of interest rate hikes if we want to understand the appropriate conditions for the Federal Reserve to act on its plans to shrink its balance sheet. This round of tightening by the Federal Reserve is different from the previous rounds in 1994 and 2004. During the first two rounds the economy was showing signs of overheating and that applied to durable goods, real estate and other areas. When the Fed raised interest rates in December 2015, major US economic indicators had not recovered to the average levels of the past decade. In this round of interest rate increases the Federal Reserve is trying to normalize monetary policy. On one hand, the US attaches great importance to the global economic environment. On the other hand, it is concerned about the volatility in financial markets. If an interest rate hike is aimed at preventing risk but instead actually accentuates risk, this is something that should be avoided. It is therefore not surprising at all that the pace of interest rate hikes has been extraordinarily slow.

根据这样的一个本质,考虑到缩表相较加息是更直接的财物出售,美联储缩表大概率将在联邦基金利率回到恰当水平后,一同全球金融环境和美国经济数据处在一个相对温文的布景下才会敞开。再考虑到现在美联储官员的表态,开端缩表的时刻大概率在2017年末到2018年头。

Shrinking the balance sheet is more straightforward as it merely involves the sale of assets. The Federal Reserve could start the process when the fed funds rate returns to an appropriate level, conditions in the global financial environment are stable and American economic indicators are generally favorable. Based on the remarks of former officials of the Fed, it is estimated that the Federal Reserve will shrink the balance sheet by the end of 2017 or at the beginning of 2018.

 

 

林采宜:统计数据显现,美联储此前经过三轮量化宽松,其总财物已从2007年的8943亿美元扩张到2014年的4.5万亿。到2016年,美联储的财物负债表规划依然有44515亿美元。其间,90%为国债和MBS,总规划到达近4万亿美元。因而,跟着经济的稳健复苏,美联储必定经过缩表来逐步处理如此巨大规划的国债和MBS。从外部环境来看,跟着特朗普的税收新政履行,世界本钱流向美国,工业进一步集聚,美国经济中长时间的强势增加几乎没有悬念。因而,在任何时分缩表都不至于使得美国经济开展势头呈现反转。本年下半年开端,缩表很有或许就进入操作阶段。

Lin Caiyi: The Federal Reserve undertook three rounds of quantitative easing, with its assets expanding from US$894.3 billion in 2007 to US$4.5 trillion in 2014. By 2016, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet was still US$4.45 trillion. Some 90% of that total, or about US$4 trillion, was in treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. With the steady recovery of the economy, the Federal Reserve must gradually undertake large scale sales of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities as it shrinks its balance sheet. At the same time we could have an implementation of Trump's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending as well as a policy that favors American industry. Along with this we could see international capital flowing back to the United States. As a result, we are likely to see solid economic growth over the longer term in the US. A shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet under those conditions would not reverse the momentum of the US economy. It is likely that in the second half of this year, the plan to shrink the Fed's balance sheet will enter into the operational phase.

钟伟:进入2017年以来,我国金融环境也有显着变化,钱银方针以微观审慎框架为根底,呈稳健中性;监管方针以去杠杆为主调,不断进行危险排查和开释。人们既调查到了人民币利率趋升和汇率趋稳,也调查到了微观经济短周期的强势,以及楼市、股市、债市的动摇。一些金融组织的财物负债表规划已呈缩表痕迹。一些研讨猜想,我国式的缩表也势在必行;另一些学者则以为,缩表在我国尚言之过早,我国央行尚不具有以继续下降存款准备金率为标志的缩表机遇。两位以为,我国央行是否也在跟从美联储,有或许进行加息和缩表操作吗?

Zhong Wei: China's financial environment has changed significantly this year. Monetary policy is stable and neutral under a macro-prudential framework and regulatory policy continues to pursue deleveraging as a means of reducing risk. There has been a rise in domestic interest rates and a stabilization of the renminbi exchange rate. At the same time, despite volatility in the property, stock and bond markets, there has been fairly strong economic growth. Some financial institutions have managed to shrink the size of their own balance sheets. Some scholars suggest that it is time for a Chinese-style shrinking of the balance sheet, while others believe it is still too early as the central bank has been reluctant to reduce the reserve ratio on bank deposits. In your opinion, is it possible for the Chinese central bank to follow the Federal Reserve by raising benchmark interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet?

管清友:央行在施行钱银方针的时分,首要要考虑的要素便是保持金融安稳,促进本国经济开展,当然央行自身也的确有多重方针均衡的问题,美国是这样,我国亦是如此。

Guan Qingyou: As the central bank implements monetary policy, the first factor to be considered is maintaining financial stability and promoting national economic development. The central bank has to strike a balance with its multiple objectives. This is true in the United States and China as well.

 

我国央行2017年的方针基调是保持金融安稳、不呈现严峻金融危险,去杠杆的一同揉捏财物泡沫,其实是为了金融更好的服务实体经济,挤虚向实。这就决议了在保持金融安稳、经济开展的大前提下,央行将会保持钱银方针一个紧平衡和强监管的态势。详细而言,便是运用短期活动性调理东西(SLO)、短期假贷便当(SLF)等短期活动性调理东西,经过精准调控来保持商场安稳,到达微加息的作用,但现在来看尚不存在提高基准利率式加息的必要和趋势。

The Chinese central bank’s key policy in 2017 is to maintain financial stability while squeezing out asset bubbles and achieving an overall deleveraging. This will make the financial system serve the real economy in a more practical manner. It also means that the central bank will maintain a relatively tight monetary policy and a strict regulatory stance. Specifically, short-term liquidity adjustment tools, such as the short-term liquidity operations (SLOs) and the standing lending facilities (SLFs), will be used to maintain market stability. These are more targeted tools that can be used to achieve the same goals as small increases in interest rates. However, there is no need for increases in benchmark interest rates at this time.

 

 

这一轮金融周期的紧缩与去杠杆的战略,并非传统含义上的缩表,能够说,中美缩表并非同一个含义。美国的缩表是央行根底钱银式的缩表,首要体现在央行财物负债表的减缩;而在我国强监管的态势下的缩表是商业银行全体信誉式的缩表,首要体现在商业银行及非银金融组织内部信誉循环派生的减缩,和金融自我昌盛和过度加杠杆的减缩。The strategy of tightening monetary policy and achieving a general deleveraging throughout the economy is not the equivalent of shrinking the central bank balance sheet as proposed in the US. In China, it would be an effort to reduce leveraging by shrinking the lending activities of commercial banks and the use of financial derivative products by the banks and the non-bank financial sector.

 

林采宜:从2017年以来的央行钱银方针取向和公开商场操作来看,我国央行被迫缩表的或许性相对较大。即在财物项下的Betway体育财物趋于削减,一同负债项下的政府存款趋于削减。首要,跟着曩昔两年Betway体育储藏的下行,央行一直没有施行降准,仅仅经过逆回购、中期假贷便当(MLF)、短期假贷便当(SLF)等灵活性钱银方针东西来调理活动性,实际上是在为缩表发明技能根底。其次,活跃财务方针下的政府财务赤字扩展,在央行的政府存款自上一年10月以来就逐步削减,从3.76万亿降至本年4月份的2.87万亿,往后这个趋势将大概率继续。以上两项,分别从财物和负债两头导致财物负债表的被迫减缩。Lin Caiyi: Based on what we have seen this year in terms of the central bank's monetary policy and its open market operations, it is highly likely that the People's Bank of China will need to make a passive shrinking of the balance sheet. That is, foreign exchange assets decrease and government deposits – or liabilities – also decrease. With the decline in foreign exchange reserves over the past two years, the central bank has not yet been able to make changes in benchmark interest rates. Instead, it has adjusted liquidity through reverse repurchase agreements on the money market as well as the use of the medium-term lending facility (MLF), the short-term lending facility (SLF) and other flexible monetary policy tools. This actually has set the technical foundation for shrinking the balance sheet. The government fiscal deficit is expanding under a proactive fiscal policy. Governmental deposits in the banking system have gradually declined, falling from 3.76 trillion yuan in October of last year to 2.87 trillion yuan in April of this year. This downward trend will continue. The above two items result in a passive shrinking of the balance sheet from both the asset and the liability sides.

 

此外,在银行等金融组织的理财资金委外约束和财物办理资金池事务约束等各项监管正常收紧的环境下,财物负债规划缩短在所难免,这又客观上导致银行及非银金融组织在央行存款的削减。从负债端促进央行被迫缩表。从钱银方针的基调来看,我国央行被迫缩表的或许性却是比较大。至于是否加息,或更多取决于CPI上涨的起伏及美联储加息的节奏。

In addition, shrinking the balance sheet is inevitable as China moves ahead with all sorts of regulatory tightening, such as putting limits on some wealth management operations and restricting cash pooling by the asset management arms of financial institutions. This results in reduced deposits at banks and non-bank financial institutions. Thus the liability side forces the central bank to shrink the balance sheet. In terms of the basic tone of monetary policy, it is also possible for the central bank to shrink the balance sheet in a passive fashion. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes will depend on the extent of the rise in the consumer price index and the frequency of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

 

钟伟:人们遍及关怀缩表与经济增加,缩表与财物价格动摇之间的相互联系。2017年1季度,美国经济增加疲弱,股市不断创前史新高。与此构成鲜明对比的是,同期我国经济增加恰当稳健,一同股债和楼市均堕入调整。在两位看来,如若美中均步入加息和缩表,有或许对经济增加、财物价格甚至全球经济格式带来怎样的冲击?

Zhong Wei: Market players generally pay close attention to the relation between shrinking the balance sheet and economic growth as well as fluctuations in asset prices. In the first quarter of 2017, US economic growth was weak and the stock market continued to reach record highs. In sharp contrast, China's economic growth during the same period remained quite stable, with the stock and the property markets stuck in an adjustment phase. In your opinion, if the United States manages to raise interest rates and shrink the central bank balance sheet, what impact would that have on economic growth, asset prices and even the global economy?

管清友:现在关于中美同步进入缩表的表述尚不精确,金融周期的缩短堆叠则更为精确。美国更早一步在2015年进入了本质性加息,我国也在上一年年末开端进入了稳健中性的钱银方针,这其间有自动也有无法。在美国加息紧缩+我国强监管的紧平衡这样的一个调配下,再加上本年年末欧洲也有或许减缩QE,使妥当时更像是一个全球钱银潮水落潮的进程。那么,曩昔在活动性浪潮中享用利好的财物或许会呈现不同的走向。

Guan Qingyou: At present, it is not clear whether China and the United States will be able to shrink their balance sheets at the same time, but it is clear that there is some overlap in their cyclical financial contraction. The United States made one interest rate hike in 2015. China moved to what it calls a stable and neutral monetary policy at the end of last year. With the combination of higher US interest rates, China's move to a tighter regulatory stance and a possible shrinking of quantitative easing in Europe by the end of this year, what we observe is an outflow of currency. Assets that previously benefited from increased liquidity in the past will now see a considerable change.

关于我国而言,短期和长时间遭到的影响或许是纷歧样的。短期来看,全球金融商场处于一个对美联储加息和缩表之前的心情真空期。一方面,美联储加息的预期比较丰满,年末隐含的利率加息次数和本质加息次数之间的空间很小;另一方面,美联储缩表最快也要在2017年年末正式进入评论,落地大概率在2018年年头。因而,短期内,我国国内财物价格更多取决于国内的钱银方针和监管方针,外围的掣肘并不显着。中美长端利率息差现在具有较高的缓冲垫。长时间来看,影响的底子仍是在于中美相对经济周期、钱银周期的方位。咱们现在现已看到了国内出清的决计和意志,这是房地产周期、库存周期、金融周期堆叠紧缩的一个现状,关键在于出清的力度和效果怎么。

For China, the short and long-term impacts may be somewhat different. Before the Federal Reserve pushes interest rates higher and shrinks its balance sheet, the markets are basically in limbo. There is room for US interest rate hikes but the Fed will not start shrinking the balance sheet until the end of this year or early 2018. In the short term, China’s domestic asset prices will depend more on domestic monetary and regulatory policies, while external issues appear less significant.

关于美国及全球金融商场而言,能够参阅日本和欧洲的缩表阅历。日本的自动缩表对股市债市和经济都带来负面影响,欧洲的被迫缩表则对商场和经济影响不大。结合现在美联储面对的经济形势,被迫缩表比自动缩表愈加简捷,危险也相对更小,因而,估计美联储会选用被迫缩表的方法。被迫缩表对美国经济增加和财物价格的影响在短期内具有脉冲性,但长时间影响相对温文。

For the United States and the global financial markets, there is much to be learned from the experience of Japan and Europe in shrinking the balance sheet. Japan’s efforts had a negative impact on the stock market and the economy, while in Europe there was only a limited impact. Given the economic situation facing the Federal Reserve, a passive shrinking of the balance sheet, or not reinvesting once securities mature, is a simpler way to go with much less risk. It is likely that the Federal Reserve will take the passive route, which will mean some short term impact on US asset prices and economic growth, but only a mild effect over the longer term.

 

 

林采宜:实际上,央行缩表并不代表钱银方针紧缩。比起缩表、扩表,在央行钱银方针引导下,商场利率中枢的移动对经济增加及财物价格动摇的影响更为直接。因而,我个人以为,加息关于经济增加和财物价格的上涨具有必定的抑制效应,一同对招引外来本钱有必定的活跃作用,而缩表不必定有明晰的影响。

Lin Caiyi: In fact, a shrinking of the central bank balance sheet does not mean monetary tightening. Compared to shrinking or enlarging the balance sheet, under the guidance of the central bank's monetary policy, the movement of market interest rates has a more direct impact on economic growth and asset prices. Raising interest rates has a certain inhibitory effect on economic growth and asset prices, but it also has a positive role in attracting foreign capital. Shrinking the balance sheet does not necessarily have a clear impact on growth.

 

钟伟:金融既要稳,也要活。在曩昔四年,我国金融业阅历了钱荒、股灾、熔断、网贷泡沫等一系列金融事情的冲击。在未来数年,我国钱银方针和监管方针怎么和谐,才能在稳增加和控危险之间找到恰当的平衡点?在本年下半年,钱银及监管方针宜进行怎样的微调,才能让金融更好服务于实体,稳中见活,而不是稳中有险?

Zhong Wei: The finance sector needs stability but it also must show vitality. In the past four years, China's financial industry has suffered a series of financial setbacks, such as credit shortages, a stock market crash, and internet lending bubbles and so on. Over the next few years, how can China's monetary and regulatory policies be coordinated to strike the right balance between steady growth and risk control? In the second half of this year, how can monetary and regulatory policies be fine-tuned so that they better serve the underlying economy? How can authorities ensure the economy posts steady growth without excessive risk?

 

管清友:回顾曩昔几年,金融自由化已大幅开展。“一行三会”形式对应的是分业运营。例如现在保险资金也能够入市了,那么,这部分穿插范畴该归谁来监管,保监会仍是证监会?工行、建行和交行都设立了基金公司,这些公司又该由银监会管仍是证监会来监管?像这种事务边界含糊的范畴其实许多,并且跟着商场准入的放宽,这种范畴将越来越多。现有的“一行三会”监管架构既有监管堆叠更有监管真空,也存在监管规范不一致、严宽标准不一致、信息不穿透等许多问题。2015年股票商场反常动摇后,政府对整个金融监管的调整并没有施行到位。现在,“微观审慎监管+组织监管+功能监管”的金融监管思路是明晰的,但这种监管体系没有构成,以至于在强化金融监管时只留意到了部分和谐的问题,监管时一同发力,导致对整个商场的影响突然加大。

Guan Qingyou: Looking back over the past few years, financial liberalization has made significant strides. The division of regulatory chores among the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission has been made to reflect largely separate spheres of business. But if insurance funds are channeled to other parts of the financial market, which authority is responsible for regulation? If a big commercial bank runs a fund management company, which authority is responsible for supervising that operation? As market access improves, there will be more areas of blurred regulatory responsibility. The current regulatory framework has created a number of overlapping areas with unclear regulatory standards, different rules, inadequate transparency and other issues. Since the abnormal stock market fluctuations of 2015, the government has been adjusting its financial regulatory environment but more work needs to be done. The present regulatory pattern is targeted at a combination of macro-prudential supervision, institutional supervision and functional supervision. These still need to be refined.

 

展望后续的钱银方针,我以为,鉴于当时决策层关于经济的运转下线忍受度提高,但关于金融泡沫与经济恶疾的忍受度下降,因而,只需不是危及体系性稳健的程度,经济下行难以再强逼钱银方针转向。至少“量价双松”的老路不会再走,咱们或许会看到“价紧量松”的局势。一方面,“量松”就确保了活动性危机是不会呈现的,危险底线能够守住;另一方面,“价紧”也便是需求活动性的组织可获得的资金价格有必要带有必定的赏罚性质,能够确保去杠杆与挤财物泡沫的效果能够守住。

 

Looking to future monetary policy, I think there is greater tolerance at the decision-making level towards the downward growth trend of the economy and reduced tolerance of financial bubbles. The downward economic growth trend will not force a change in monetary policy as long as the soundness of the financial system is not affected.

林采宜:钱银方针和监管方针在周期上最好能完成必定程度的“对冲”联系。例如,监管组织撤销财物办理组织资金池事务,以及对银行理财资金委外办理做出严厉约束,其初衷都是为了操控金融组织的体系危险,可是假如在履行监管办法的进程中叠加活动性缩短,那么股票、债券的二级商场都会面对严峻失血,引发溃散式跌落危险。因而,整理违规资金,逼使它们退出二级商场时,钱银方针宜宽松,使得商场资金环境短期内相对平衡;而财物价格上涨时,钱银方针宜恰当收紧,以防止财物泡沫的构成或许扩展。

Lin Caiyi: Monetary and regulatory policies are best when they “offset each other” to a certain degree. For example, regulators could abolish the cash pooling business of asset management companies while imposing strict curbs on the “outsourcing” of management of bank wealth management operations. The original intention of policy makers was to control the systemic risks of financial institutions. However, if there is a contraction of liquidity as other regulatory measures are rolled out, the stock and bond markets could face severe shocks. That would risk a much more dramatic downturn. Therefore, while forcing funds out of the secondary markets there is a need for a more relaxed monetary policy.

钟伟:看起来当下是次贷危机后,首要经济体的经济增加和长时间活动性处于回归常态化均值的缓慢进程,缩表并不急迫可是被迫式缩表的概率犹存,假如处理妥当,加息和缩表的冲击是渐进可控的。对我国而言,对过高增加率期望值的下降和对金融泡沫容忍度的下降,导致钱银方针和监管方针偏松的环境不复存在。金融稳中求活,紧中务实的趋势逐步明亮化。

Zhong Wei: Since the disruptions of the subprime mortgage crisis, the major economies have seen a gradual return to normal growth and more adequate long-term liquidity. While there are no signs of an imminent shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, there could be a passive reduction. The impact of a smaller balance sheet and higher interest rates can be relatively limited if attained in a controlled and gradual manner. For China, the reduced expectations for economic growth and a diminished tolerance for financial bubbles should ensure that there is no overly loose monetary or regulatory policy environment. With a stable financial sector, and the prospect of concrete results from a tighter environment is becoming clearer.